Natural Hazards

, Volume 79, Issue 2, pp 1039–1058 | Cite as

Seismicity rate modeling for prospective stochastic forecasting: the case of 2014 Kefalonia, Greece, seismic excitation

  • D. Gospodinov
  • V. Karakostas
  • E. Papadimitriou
Original Paper


We examined the January–February 2014 earthquake doublet (M w = 6.1 and M w = 6.0) and the associated aftershocks which form a seismic excitation adequately well recorded by a dense local seismological network. It started on January 26 with the main shock, causing a lot of panic and followed by numerous aftershocks. The second main shock with M w = 6.0 occurred 7 days later on an along-strike adjacent fault segment. The close proximity of the two main shocks, in both space and time and the intense aftershock sequence, triggered the investigation of the occurrence probability evolution for the stronger aftershocks and possibly a third main shock in the seismic excitation. This purpose was further motivated by the potential of the area for hosting a stronger (M w ≥ 6.0) earthquake based upon both historical information and instrumental data. Aftershock rate modeling was done on subsequent data samples by the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence stochastic model, and probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M w ≥ 5.0) earthquakes were calculated during the progress of the aftershock sequence. We executed daily model simulations and probability forecasts for 30 days focusing in more detail on the impact of some model parameters on the prospective forecasting. Trying to be near to a real-time case, all forecasts were done on data up to the moment of forecasting.


Seismicity Aftershock sequence Aftershock probabilities Kefalonia (Greece) RETAS stochastic model 



This work was partially supported by the OTRIONS project “Multi-Parametric Network for the Study and Monitoring of Natural Hazards in the Otranto Channel and the Ionian Sea.” Some plots were made using the Generic Mapping Tools version 4.5.3 (, Wessel and Smith 1998). Geophysics Department Contribution 842.


  1. Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Autom Control AC 19:716–723CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ben-Zion Y, Lyakovsky V (2002) Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquake faults. Pure appl Geophys 159:2385–2412CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Console R, Murru M, Catalli F (2006a) Physical and stochastic models of earthquake clustering. Tectonophysics 417:141–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Console R, Rhoades DA, Murru M, Evison FF, Papadimitriou EE, Karakostas VG (2006b) Comparative performance of time-invariant, long-range and short-range forecasting models on the earthquake catalogue of Greece. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2005JB004113 Google Scholar
  5. Console R, Murru M, Catalli F, Falcone F (2007) Real time forecasts through an earthquake clustering model constrained by the rate-and-state constitutive law compared with a purely stochastic ETAS model. Seismol Res Lett 78:49–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Console R, Murru M, Falcone G (2010) Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of M ≥ 5 earthquakes in Italy. J Seismol 14:9–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Drakatos G, Latoussakis J (1996) Some features of aftershock patterns in Greece. Geophys J Intern 126:123–134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Gerstenberger M, Wiemer S, Jones L, Reasenberg P (2005) Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes for California. Nature 435:328–331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Gerstenberger MC, Jones LM, Wiemer S (2007) Short term aftershock probabilities: case studies in California. Seismol Res Lett 78(1):66–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gospodinov DR, Rotondi R (2006) Statistical analysis of triggered seismicity in the Kresna region of SW Bulgaria (1904) and the Umbria–Marche region of central Italy (1997). Pure appl Geophys 163:1597–1615CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gospodinov D, Papadimitriou EE, Karakostas VG, Ranguelov B (2007) Analysis of relaxation temporal patterns in Greece through the RETAS model approach. Phys Earth Planet Int 165:158–175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gutenberg B, Richter C (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 34:185–188Google Scholar
  13. Holschneider M, Narteau C, Shebalin P, Peng Z, Schorlemmer D (2012) Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law. J Geophys Res 117:B06317. doi: 10.1029/2011JB009054 Google Scholar
  14. Jordan TH (2006) Earthquake predictability, brick by brick. Seismol Res Lett 77:3–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Jordan T, Jones L (2010) Operational earthquake forecasting: some thoughts on why and how. Seismol Res Lett 81:571–574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Jordan TH, Chen Y-T, Gasparini P, Madariaga R, Main I, Marzocchi W, Papadopoulos G, Sobolev G, Yamaoka K, Zschau J (2011) Operational earthquake forecasting; state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization, report by the international commission on earthquake forecasting for civil protection. Ann Geophys. doi: 10.4401/ag-5350 Google Scholar
  17. Karakostas V, Papadimitriou E, Mesimeri M, Gkarlaouni Ch, Paradisopoulou P (2014a) The 2014 Kefalonia doublet (Mw6.1 and Mw6.0) central Ionian Islands, Greece: Seismotectonic implications along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone. Acta Geophys. doi: 10.2478/s11600-014-0227-4 Google Scholar
  18. Karakostas VG, Papadimitriou EE, Gospodinov D (2014b) Modeling the 2013 North Aegean (Greece) seismic sequence: geometrical and frictional constraints, and aftershock probabilities. Geophys J Int. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt523 Google Scholar
  19. Latoussakis J, Stavrakakis G, Drakopoulos J, Papanastassiou D, Drakatos G (1991) Temporal characteristics of some earthquake sequences in Greece. Tectonophysics 193:299–310CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Marzocchi W, Lombardi A-M (2009) Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2009GL040233 Google Scholar
  21. Marzocchi W, Murru M, Lombardi A-M, Falcone G, Console R (2012) Daily earthquake forecasts during the May–June 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence (northern Italy). Ann Geophys 55:561–567Google Scholar
  22. McClusky S, Balassanian S, Barka A, Demir C, Georgiev I, Hamburger M, Hurst K, Kahle H, Kastens K, Kekelidze G, King R, Kotzev V, Lenk O, Mahmoud S, Mishin A, Nadariya M, Ouzounis A, Paradisis D, Peter Y, Prilepi M, Reilinger R, Sanli I, Seeger H, Tealeb A, Toksoz MN, Veis G (2000) GPS constraints on crustal movements and deformations in the Eastern Mediterranean (1988–1997): implications for plate dynamics. J Geophys Res 105:5695–5719CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Mignan A (2012) Seismicity precursors to large earthquakes unified in a stress accumulation framework. Geophys Res Lett 39:L21308. doi: 10.1029/2012GL053946 Google Scholar
  24. Mignan A, King G, Bowman D (2007) A mathematical formulation of accelerating moment release based on the stress accumulation model. J Geophys Res 112:B07308. doi: 10.1029/2006JB004671 Google Scholar
  25. Mogi K (1962) Magnitude-frequency relationship for elastic shocks accompanying fractures of various materials and some related problems in earthquakes. Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo 40:831–883Google Scholar
  26. Ogata Y (1988) Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J Am Stat As 83:9–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Ogata Y (1998) Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Ann Inst Stat Math 50(379–402):597–1615Google Scholar
  28. Ogata Y (2001) Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models. J Appl Probab 38A:202–212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Özel G (2011) A bivariate compound Poisson model for the occurrence of foreshock and aftershock sequences in Turkey. Environmetrics 22(7):847–856. doi: 10.1002/env.1098 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Papadimitriou EE (2002) Mode of strong earthquake recurrence in central Ionian Islands (Greece). Possible triggering due to Coulomb stress changes generated by the occurrence of previous strong shocks. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:3293–3308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Papadimitriou EE, Gospodinov D, Karakostas VG, Astiopoulos A (2013) Evolution of the vigorous 2006 swarm in Zakynthos (Greece) and probabilities for strong aftershocks occurrence. J Seismol 17:735–752CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Papazachos BC, Papazachou C (2003) The earthquakes of Greece. Ziti Publication, Thessaloniki, p 317Google Scholar
  33. Papazachos BC, Scordilis EM, Panagiotopoulos DG, Papazachos CB, Karakaisis GF (2004) Global relations between seismic fault parameters and moment magnitude of earthquakes. In: 10th international congress of the Hellenic geographical society. Thessaloniki, Greece, 14–17 April 2004, pp 539–540Google Scholar
  34. Reasenberg PA, Jones LM (1989) Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California. Science 243(4895):1173–1176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Reasenberg PA, Jones LM (1994) Earthquake aftershocks: update. Science 265:1251–1252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Sakkas V, Lagios E (2015) Fault modeling on the early 2014 ~ M6 earthquakes in Cephalonia Island (W. Greece) based on GPS measurements. Tectonophysics. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2015.01.010 Google Scholar
  37. Schorlemmer D, Gerstenberger M, Wiemer S, Jackson DD, Rhoades DA (2007) Earthquake likelihood model testing. Seismol Res Lett 78:17–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Utsu T (1961) A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys Mag 30:521–605Google Scholar
  39. Utsu T, Seki A (1955) Relation between the area of aftershock region and the energy of the main shock (in Japanese). Zisin 7:233–240Google Scholar
  40. Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002Google Scholar
  41. Wessel P, Smith WHF (1998) New, improved version of the generic mapping tools released. EOS Trans AGU 79:579CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wiemer S (2001) A software package to analyze seismicity: ZMAP. Seismol Res Lett 72:373–382CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of PhysicsPlovdiv University “Paisii Hilendarski”PlovdivBulgaria
  2. 2.Geophysics DepartmentAristotle University of ThessalonikiThessaloníkiGreece

Personalised recommendations