Natural Hazards

, Volume 74, Issue 2, pp 1263–1290 | Cite as

A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy

  • Lorella Montrasio
  • Roberto Valentino
  • Angela Corina
  • Lauro Rossi
  • Roberto Rudari
Technical Note


In the last decades, physically based distributed models turned out rather promising to achieve the space–time assessment of shallow landslides at large spatial scale. This technical note deals with the application of a physically based stability model named Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP), which has been adopted by the Department of National Civil Protection of Italy as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on national scale. The model is used as a main methodology to create space–time shallow landslide susceptibility maps based on a simple deterministic slope-stability approach, combined with high-resolution rainfall information and geographic information system-based geospatial datasets. The safety factor as an index to measure slope instability is modeled as function of topographic, geologic, geotechnical and hydrologic variables. Although the main aim of this work was to prove the operational viability of such model on a nationwide domain and some simplification are adopted at this stage, hind cast tests on some relevant case histories of shallow landslides occurred between October 2009 and October 2011 showed that the model has skill in representing both timing and location of those shallow landslides.


Shallow landslides Case history GIS Rainfall map Warning system Stability analysis 



The authors gratefully acknowledge the support to the present study from CIMA Foundation (Savona—Italy) and the Department of National Civil Protection. The authors are also very grateful to the editor and the two anonymous reviewers for the valuable criticisms and suggestions during the review process.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lorella Montrasio
    • 1
  • Roberto Valentino
    • 1
  • Angela Corina
    • 2
  • Lauro Rossi
    • 3
  • Roberto Rudari
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Civil, Environmental, Territory Engineering and ArchitectureUniversity of ParmaParmaItaly
  2. 2.Department of National Civil ProtectionRomeItaly
  3. 3.CIMA Research Foundation, International Centre on Environmental MonitoringSavonaItaly

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