Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Is tidal forcing critical to trigger large Sumatra earthquakes?

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Complexity in the earthquake mechanism is manifested in different forms such as fractal distribution, clustering of seismicity, etc., and characterized as critical phenomenon. Occurrences of earthquakes generally represent the state of metastable equilibrium. The Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone is one of the most seismically active corridors (possibly in metastable state) in the world. Recently, the region faced three major earthquakes of magnitude more than 8.5 (M ~ 9.1 on December 26, 2004; M ~ 8.6 on March 28, 2005; M ~ 8.6 on April 11, 2012). Researchers have suggested multiple causes of earthquake generation in this region including the one with possible correlation of tidal stresses with earthquake occurrences. The latter issue, however, has been hotly debated in view of the fact that a small stress generated due to tidal forcing cannot cause such a bigger magnitude earthquake. We study here the impact of tidal forcing on critically generated earthquake phenomena. We examined the statistical behavior of recurrence time interval of earthquakes using the available data for period of about 40 years from 1973 to 2013. We constrain the simple empirical toy model using the concept of catastrophe theory to evaluate the impact of small tidal forcing on the critical state of earthquakes occurrences. In addition to the major role of Helmholtz free energy during the plate motion, our analysis suggests that the stability and critical behavior of the earthquake in Sumatra region could be associated with tidal forcing, however, only for triggering of some of the “Catastrophic–Chaotic” earthquake phenomenon.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Beeler NM, Lockner DA (2003) Why earthquakes correlate weakly with the solid Earth tides: effects of periodic stress on the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence. J Geophys Res 108(B8):2391. doi:10.1029/2001JB001518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blanpied ML, Lockner DA, Byerlee JD (1995) Frictional slip of granite at hydrothermal conditions. J Geophys Res 100(B7):13045–13064

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cattin R, Chamot-Rooke N, Pubellier M, Rabaute A, Delescluse M, Vigny C, Fleitout L, Dubernet P (2009) Stress change and effective friction coefficient along the Sumatra-Andaman-Sagaing fault system after the 26 December 2004 (Mw = 9.2) and the 28 March 2005 (Mw = 8.7) earthquakes. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 10:Q03011. doi:10.1029/2008GC002167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chamoli A, Yadav RBS (2013) Multifractality in seismic sequences of NW Himalaya. Nat Haz (Online First)

  • Cochran ES, Vidale JE, Tanaka S (2004) Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes. Science 306:1164–1166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dieterich J (1979) Modelling of rock friction: 1. Experimental results and constitutive equations. J Geophys Res 84:2161–2168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dieterich JH (1987) Nucleation and triggering of earthquake slip: effect of periodic stresses. Tectonophysics 144:127–139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimri, VP (2000) Application of fractals in earth sciences. A. A. Balkema, USA/Oxford and IBH Pub. Co., New Delhi

  • Dimri VP (2005) Fractals in Geophysics and Seismology- An Introduction. In: Dimri VP (ed) Fractal behaviour of the earth system. Springer, New York, pp 1–19

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Z, Jia J, Wang R (1983) Seismic triggering effect of tidal stress. Tectonophysics 93:319–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emter D (1997) Tidal triggering of earthquakes and volcanic events. In: Wilhelm H et al (eds) Tidal phenomena, Lect. Notes Earth Sci. (vol. 66). Springer, New York, pp 293–309

    Google Scholar 

  • Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5):1363–1367

    Google Scholar 

  • Gomberg J, Raesenberg A, Bodin P, Harris RH (2001) Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake. Nature 411:462–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heaton TH (1982) Tidal triggering of earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 72:2181–2200

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang C, Wu Z (2005) Test of the preshock accelerating moment release (AMR) in the case of the 26 December 2004 Mw 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:2016–2025. doi:10.1785/0120050018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kasahara L (2002) Tides, earthquakes, and volcanoes. Science 297(5580):348–349. doi:10.1126/science.1074601

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King GCP, Stein RS, Lin J (1994) Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:935–953

    Google Scholar 

  • Lockner DA, Beeler NM (1999) Premonitory slip and tidal triggering of earthquakes. J Geophys Res 104(B9):20133–20151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lowry AR (2006) Resonant slow fault slip in subduction zones forced by climatic load stress. Nature 442(7104):802–805. doi:10.1038/nature05055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Metivier L, de Viron O, Conrad CP, Renault S, Diament M, Patau G (2009) Evidence of earthquake triggering by the solid earth tides. Earth Planet Sci Let 278:370–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan WJ, Stoner JO, Dicke RH (1961) Periodicity of earthquakes and the invariance of the gravitational constant. J Geophys Res 66(11):3831–3843

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perfettini H, Schmittbuhl J, Cochard A (2003) Shear and normal load perturbations a two-dimensional continuous fault: 2. Dynamics triggering. J Geophys Res 108:2409. doi:10.1029/2002JB001805

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poston T, Stewart I (1978) Catastrophe theory and its applications. Pitman, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Ruina AL (1983) Slip instability and state variable friction laws. J Geophys Res 88:10359–10370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rundle JB (1989) A physical model for Earthquakes 3. Thermodynamical approach and its relation to nonclassical theories of nucleation. J Geophys Res 94(B3):2839–2855

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage MK, Depolo DM (1993) Foreshock probabilities in the western Great-Basin eastern Sierra Nevada. Bull Seismol Soc Am 83:1910–1938

    Google Scholar 

  • Scholz CH (1998) Earthquakes and friction laws. Nature 391:37–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schuster A (1897) On lunar and solar periodicities of earthquakes. Proc R Soc Lond 61:455–465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sornette D, Knopoff L, Kagan YY, Vanneste C (1996) Rank ordering statistics of extreme events: application to the distribution of large earthquakes. J Geophys Res 101(B6):13883–13893

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Souriau M, Souriau A, Gagnepain J (1982) Modelling and detecting interactions between Earth tides and earthquakes with application to an aftershock sequence in the Pyrenees. Bull Seism Soc Am 72:165–180

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka S (2010) Tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the recent Sumatra megathrust earthquakes of 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5). Geophys Res Lett 37:L02301. doi:10.1029/2009GL041581

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka S, Ohtake M, Sato H (2002a) Spatio-temporal variation of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence associated with the 1982 South Tonga earthquake of Mw 7.5. Geophys Res Lett 29(16):1756. doi:10.1029/2002GL015386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka S, Ohtake M, Sato H (2002b) Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data. J Geophys Res 107(B10):2211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tolstoy M, Vernon FL, Orcutt JA, Wyatt FK (2002) Breathing of the seafloor: tidal correlations of seismicity at Axial volcano. Geology 30:503–506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsuruoka H, Ohtake M, Sato H (1995) Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes: contribution of the ocean tide loading effect. Geophys J Int 122:183–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vidale JE, Agnew DC, Johnston MJS, Oppenheimer DH (1998) Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides: an indication of high preseismic fault stress rate. J Geophys Res 103:24567–24572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilcock WSD (2001) Tidal triggering of microearthquakes on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Geophys Res Lett 28:3999–4002. doi:10.1029/2001GL013370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin XC, Wang YC, Peng KY, Bai YL, Wang HT, Yin XF (2000) Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction: load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure Appl Geophys 157:2365–2383. doi:10.1007/PL00001088

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Director, CSIR-NGRI for support and permission to publish the work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, Uppal Road, Hyderabad, 500 007, India

    R. K. Tiwari & Ashutosh Chamoli

Authors
  1. R. K. Tiwari
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ashutosh Chamoli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ashutosh Chamoli.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Tiwari, R.K., Chamoli, A. Is tidal forcing critical to trigger large Sumatra earthquakes?. Nat Hazards 77 (Suppl 1), 65–74 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1068-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1068-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation