Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 69, Issue 1, pp 793–807 | Cite as

Summer monsoon rainfall scenario over Bangladesh using a high-resolution AGCM

  • Md. Mizanur Rahman
  • M. Rafiuddin
  • Md. Mahbub Alam
  • Shoji Kusunoki
  • Akio Kitoh
  • F. Giorgi
Original Paper

Abstract

Summer monsoon rainfall was simulated by a global 20 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), focusing on the changes in the summer monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Calibration and validation of AGCM were performed over Bangladesh for generating summer monsoon rainfall scenarios. The model-produced summer monsoon rainfall was calibrated with a ground-based observational data in Bangladesh during the period 1979–2003. The TRMM 3B43 V6 data are also used for understanding the model performance. The AGCM output obtained through validation process made it confident to be used for near future and future summer monsoon rainfall projection in Bangladesh. In the present-day (1979–2003) climate simulations, the high-resolution AGCM produces the summer monsoon rainfall better as a spatial distribution over SAARC region in comparison with TRMM but magnitude may be different. Summer monsoon rainfall projection for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for near future and future during the period 2015–2034 and 2075–2099, respectively. This work reveals that summer monsoon rainfall simulated by a high-resolution AGCM is not directly applicable to application purpose. However, acceptable performance was obtained in estimating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh after calibration and validation. This study predicts that in near future, summer monsoon rainfall on an average may decrease about −0.5 % during the period 2015–2034 and future summer monsoon rainfall may increase about 0.4 % during the period 2075–2099.

Keywords

Rainfall Monsoon Raingauge data AGCM 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The first author is grateful to JICA Bangladesh for selecting for the training course on “Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis” JFY 2008, project number: 0884131. The authors are also grateful to the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan, for providing data of high-resolution (20 km) AGCM for the study. The Bangladesh Meteorological department (BMD) is acknowledged for providing observational data. The TRMM rainfall data were obtained for verification of the results from the NASA’s TRMM web site.

References

  1. Bengtsson L, Botzet M, Esch M (1996) Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes? Telllus 48A:57–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Gadgil S, Rajeevan M, Nanjundiah R (2005) Monsoon prediction: why yet another failure? Curr Sci 88:1389–1400Google Scholar
  3. Hastenrath S (1995) Recent advances in tropical climate prediction. J Clim 8:1519–1532CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. IPCC (2000) In: Nakic′enovic′ N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Gru¨bler A, Yong Jung T, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (eds) Special report on emissions scenarios. A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,p 595Google Scholar
  5. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, vander Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  6. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon SD Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, KB Averyt, M Tignol and HL Miller (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 ppGoogle Scholar
  7. Islam MN (2009) Rainfall and temperature scenario for Bangladesh. Open Atmospheric Sci J Bentham Open 3:93–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Islam MN, Uyeda H (2007) Use of TRMM in determining the climatic characteristics of rainfall over Bangladesh. Remote Sens Environ Elsevier Inc 108(3):264–276. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2006.11.011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Islam MN, Uyeda H (2008) Vertical variations of rain intensity in different rainy periods in and around Bangladesh derived from TRMM observations. Int J Climatol 28:273–279. doi: 10.1002/joc.1585 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Jagannathan P (1960) Seasonal forecasting in India: a review. FMU: 1–80, India Meteorological Department, Pune, IndiaGoogle Scholar
  11. Kang IS, Jin K, Wang B, Lau KM, Shukla J, Krishnamurthy V, Schubert SD, Wailser DE, Stern WF, Kitoh A, Meehl GA, Kanamitsu M, Galin VY, Satyan V, Park CK, Liu Y (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Kitoh A, Kusunoki S (2008) East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20-km mesh AGCM. Clim Dyn 31:389–401. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0285-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kumar KK, Soman MK, Kumar KR (1995) Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Weather 50:449–467CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kusunoki S, Mizuta R (2008) Future changes in the Baiu rain rand projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model: sea surface temperature dependence. SOLA 4:85–88. doi:10.2151/sola 2008-022Google Scholar
  15. Kusunoki S, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Noda A, Oouchi K, Mizuta R (2006) Change of Baiu rain band in global warming projection by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20 km grid size. J Meteor Soc Jpn 84:581–611CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Mizuta R, Oouchi K, Yoshimura H, Noda A, Katayama K, Yukimoto S, Hosaka M, Kusunoki S, Kawai H, Nakagawa M (2006) 20 km-mesh global climate simulations using JMA-GSM model-mean climate states. J Meteor Soc Jpn 84:165–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Mizuta R, Adachi Y, Yukimoto S, Kusunoki S (2008) Estimation of the future distribution of sea surface temperature and sea ice using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean. Technical report Meteorol Res Inst 56:28 pp http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Publish/Technical/DATA/VOL_56/tec_rep_mri_56.pdf#page=5. Accessed 11 Nov 2010
  18. Normand C (1953) Monsoon seasonal forecasting. Q J R Meteorol Soc 79:463–473CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Oouchi K, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Mizuta R, Kusunoki S, Noda A (2006) Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20 km mesh global atmospheric model frequency and wind intensity analyses. J Meteor Soc Jpn 84:259–276CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Rahman MM (2006) A validation of regional climate model simulation with observational data over Bangladesh: M. Phil. thesis, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET) Library, Dhaka, BangladeshGoogle Scholar
  21. Rajeevan M (2001) Prediction of Indian summer monsoon: status, problems and prospects. Curr Sci 11:1451–1457CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Randall D, Pan DM (1993) Implementation of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization with a prognostic closure. Meteorol Monoger 46:145–150Google Scholar
  23. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Thapliyal V, Kulshreshtha S (1992) Recent models for long range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India. J Arid Environ 43:239–248Google Scholar
  25. Wang B, Ho L (2002) Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon. J. Climate 15:386–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. WCRP (2011) Data and bias correction for decadal climate predictions. World Climate Research Programme report, International CLIVAR Project Office, CLIVAR Publication Series No 150Google Scholar
  27. Yatagai A, Xie P, Kitoh A (2005) Utilization of a new gauge-based daily precipitation dataset over monsoon Asia for validation of the daily precipitation climatology simulated by the MRI/JMA 20-km mesh AGCM. SOLA 1:193–196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Yoshimura H, Matsumura T (2005) A two-time-level vertically conservative semi-Lagrangian semiimplicit double Fourier series AGCM. CAS/JSC WGNE Res Activities Atmos Ocean Model 35:3.27–3.28Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Md. Mizanur Rahman
    • 1
    • 2
  • M. Rafiuddin
    • 2
  • Md. Mahbub Alam
    • 1
  • Shoji Kusunoki
    • 3
  • Akio Kitoh
    • 3
  • F. Giorgi
    • 4
  1. 1.SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC)DhakaBangladesh
  2. 2.Department of PhysicsBangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)DhakaBangladesh
  3. 3.Meteorological Research InstituteTsukubaJapan
  4. 4.Earth System PhysicsAbdus Salam International Center for Theoretical PhysicsTriesteItaly

Personalised recommendations