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Comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model and evaluation of the karst collapse susceptibility in Zaozhuang Region, China

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Abstract

Karst collapses in Zaozhuang area are the typical karst collapses induced by groundwater over-pumping in north China, which lead to severe economic loss and negative societal influence. Based on the comprehensive analysis of all natural influencing factors and human influencing factors associated with karst collapse in the Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area, China, this paper establishes karst collapse susceptibility evaluation model by means of fuzzy mathematic method, in which the Quantitative theory method was firstly applied in determination of the factor weights. The karst collapse susceptibility evaluation model with 14 evaluation indicators can be effectively used for quantitative evaluation on the karst collapse susceptibility. So, an analysis and evaluation on the karst collapse susceptibility of Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area is completed by means of karst collapse susceptibility evaluation model. The karst collapse area of Zaozhuang region is divided into very high susceptibility area, high susceptibility area, medium susceptibility area and low susceptibility area, which account for about 6.3, 5.2, 10.4 and 78.1 % of the total karst area and the karst collapse susceptibility evaluation map of Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area is completed. The results above will be helpful for the strategic planning and decision-making processes associated with exploitation of karst water resources and with prevention and control of karst collapse hazards of this region.

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Acknowledgments

The study presented is supported by the Special Research Foundation of Doctoral Program of the Ministry of Education (No. 20113721110002), the Open Research Foundation of Water Resources and Hydropower Research of China (No. IWHRKF2010119). Thanks to Prof. Liang Yongping, Karst Research Institute of Gulin, for supporting the authors with the valuable karst collapse data. Postgraduates Zhang Bing and Qian Miaomiao have done a lot of significant work in the data analysis for this paper. The authors are indebted to them for their work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Qingdao Technological University, No. 11 Fushun Road, Qingdao, 266033, Shandong, People’s Republic of China

    Keqiang He, Yuyue Jia & Huilai Luo

  2. Shijiazhuang University of Economics, No. 136 Huaian East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050031, Hubei, People’s Republic of China

    Bin Wang & Huilai Luo

  3. Shandong Building Materials Geological Exploration Center of SINOMA, Jinan, 250000, People’s Republic of China

    Ronglu Wang

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  1. Keqiang He
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  2. Yuyue Jia
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  3. Bin Wang
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  4. Ronglu Wang
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  5. Huilai Luo
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Correspondence to Keqiang He.

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He, K., Jia, Y., Wang, B. et al. Comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model and evaluation of the karst collapse susceptibility in Zaozhuang Region, China. Nat Hazards 68, 613–629 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0653-7

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