Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 65, Issue 1, pp 653–681 | Cite as

Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA

  • Mohammad M. Sohrabi
  • Jae H. Ryu
  • John Abatzoglou
  • John Tracy
Original Paper

Abstract

To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962–2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May–August) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.

Keywords

Climate change Climatic indices Drought Climate extreme 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This research was mainly funded by the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program and by the National Science Foundation under award number EPS-0814387. Partial funding support for Jae Ryu is also made from NASA under award No NNX08AL94G. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of NSF and NASA. Any queries should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

References

  1. Aguilar E, Peterson TC, Obando PR, Frutos R, Retana JA, Solera M, Soley J, Gonzalez Garcia I, Araujo RM, Rosa Santos A, Valle VE, Brunet M, Auilar L, Alvarez L, Bautista M, Castaiion C, Herrera L, Ruano E, Sinay JJ, Sanchez E, Hernadez Oviedo GI, Obed F, Salgado JE, Vazquez JL, Baca M, Gutierrez M, Centella C, Espinosa J, Martinez D, Olmedo B, Ojeda Espinoza CE, Nunez R, Haylock M, Benavides H, Mayorga R (2005) Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961–2003. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006119 Google Scholar
  2. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290 Google Scholar
  3. Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown S, Hegerl GC, Caesar J (2005) Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2005GL023885 Google Scholar
  4. Das HP, Adamenko TI, Anaman KA, Gommes RG, Johnson G (2003) Agrometeorology related to extreme events. World Meteorological Organization, Technical Note No. 201Google Scholar
  5. Dos Santos CAC, Neale CMU, Rao TVR, Da Silva BB (2010) Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation over Utah, USA. Int J Climatol. doi: 10.1002/joc.2205 Google Scholar
  6. Easterling DR, Alexander LV, Mokssit A, Determmerman V (2003) CCI/CLIVAR workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:1403–1407. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-84-10-1403 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Frei C, Schar C (2001) Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the Alpine region. J Clim 14:1568–1584CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19:193–212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Guttman NB (1992) A sensitivity analysis of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index. Water Resour Bull 27:797–807CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Haylock MR, Peterson TC, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Anunciacao MT, Baez J, Barros VR, Berlato MA, Bidegain M, Coronel G, Corradi V, Garcia VJ, Grimm AM, Karoly D, Marengo JA, Marino MB, Moncunill DF, Nechet D, Quintana J, Rebello E, Rusticucci M, Santos JL, Trebejo I, Vincent LA (2006) Trends in total and extreme South American Rainfall in 1960–2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J Clim 19:1490–1512CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1149–1165Google Scholar
  12. Hidalgo HG (2004) Climate precursors of multidecadal drought variability in the western United States. Water Resour Res 40:W12504. doi: 10.1029/2004WR003350 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. IDWR (Idaho Department of Water Resources) (2001) Idaho drought planGoogle Scholar
  14. Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A (1999) CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes: workshop summary. Clim Change 42:3–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Keyantash J, Dracup JA (2002) The quantification of drought: an analysis of drought indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(8):1167–1180Google Scholar
  16. Kiktev D, Sexton DMH, Alexander L, Folland CK (2003) Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J Clim 16:3560–3571CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22:1571–1592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Manton MJ, Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ, Nicholls N, Chambers LE, Collins DA, Daw G, Finet A, Gunawan D, Inape K, Isobe H, Kestin TS, Lefale P, Leyu CH, Lwin T, Maitrepierre L, Ouprasitwong N, Page CM, Pahalad J, Plummer N, Salinger MJ, Suppiah R, Tran VL, Trewin B, Tibig I, Yee D (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1962–1998. Int J Climatol 21:269–284. doi: 10.1002/joc.610 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Manuel J (2008) Drought in the Southeast: lessens for water management. Environ Health Perspect 116:A168–A171CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Marofi S, Sohrabi MM, Mohammadi K, Sabziparvar AA, Zare-Abyaneh H (2010) Investigation of meteorological extreme events over coastal regions of Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 103:401–412. doi: 10.1007/s00704-010-0298-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: 8th Conference on applied climatology, AnaheimGoogle Scholar
  22. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Tebaldi C (2005) Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations”. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18719. doi: 10.1029/2005GL023680 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Datsenko K, Holmgren NM, Karlen W (2005) Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617. doi: 10.1038/nature03265 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Munich RE (2002) Flooding in central and eastern Europe, August 2002Google Scholar
  25. New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB, Tsiga A, Kruger A, Manhique A, Gomez B, Coelho CAS, Masisi DN, Kululanga E, Mbambalala E, Adesina F, Saleh H, Kanyanga J, Adosi J, Bulane L, Fortunata L, Mdoka ML, Lajoie R (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa. J Geophys Res 111:D14102. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006289
  26. Nigam S, Guan B, Ruiz-Barradas A (2011) Key role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in 20th Century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains. J Geophys Res Lett 38:L16713. doi: 10.1029/2011GL048650
  27. Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological droughts. US Dep Weather Bureau Res Pap 45:45–58Google Scholar
  28. Pearson K (1903) Mathematical contribution to the theory of evolution-XI on the influence of natural selection on the variability and correlation of organs. Phil Trans R Soc Lond Ser A 200:1–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Peterson TC (2005) Climate change indices. World Meteorol Organ Bull 54(2):83–86Google Scholar
  30. Peterson TC, Taylor MA, Demeritte R, Duncombe DL, Burton S, Thompson F, Porter A, Mercedes M, Villegas E, Fils RS, Tank AK, Martis A, Warner R, Joyette A, Mills W, Alexander L, Gleason B (2002) Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. J Geophys Res 107(D21):4601. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002251 Google Scholar
  31. Sen Roy S, Balling RC (2004) Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. Int J Climatol 24:457–466CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Vincent LA, Peterson TC, Barros VR, Marino MB, Rusticucci M, Carrasco G, Ramirez E, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Berlato MA, Grimm AM, Marengo JA, Molion L, Moncunill D, Rebello E, Anunciacao YMT, Quintana J, Santos JL, Baez J, Coronel G, Garcia J, Trebejo I, Bidegain M, Haylock MR, Karoly D (2005) Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960–2000. J Clim 18(23):5011–5023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Vincente-Serano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI (2009) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23:1696–1718CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating palmer drought severity index. J Clim 17:2335–2351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Wong MC, Mok HY, Lee TC (2010) Observed changes in extreme weather indices in Hong Kong. Int J Climatol. doi: 10.1002/joc.2238 Google Scholar
  36. Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) User guide. Climate Research Branch Environment CanadaGoogle Scholar
  37. Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N, Kutaladze N, Rahimzadeh F, Taghipour A, Hantosh TH, Albert P, Semawi M, Karam Ali M, Al-Shabibi MHS, Al-Oulan Z, Zatari T, Khelet IAD, Hamoud S, Sagir R, Demircan M, Eken M, Adiguzel M, Alexander L, Peterson TC, Wallis T (2005) Trends in middle east climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res 110:D22104. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006181

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mohammad M. Sohrabi
    • 1
  • Jae H. Ryu
    • 1
  • John Abatzoglou
    • 2
  • John Tracy
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Biological and Agricultural EngineeringUniversity of IdahoBoiseUSA
  2. 2.Department of GeographyUniversity of IdahoMoscowUSA
  3. 3.Idaho Water Resources Research InstituteUniversity of IdahoBoiseUSA

Personalised recommendations