Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood estimation using HEC-RAS model in Northern Pakistan

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

On the morning of January 4, 2010, a massive landslide swept the Attabad and Sarat villages into the Hunza River. The debris from the landslide blocked the low-lying river, creating a barrier lake in the area and poses a major threat to the villages located downstream. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the environmental advantages and disadvantages created by the formation of the artificial lake. For this purpose, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to create the contours and triangulated irregular network (TIN) of the region. Data from ‘Google Earth’ image on March 19, 2010 were used as the reference and to determine the river bed elevation of the study area. Landsat satellite data of Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor on January 10, March 15, April 24 and May 2, 2010, were used for constructing the Geographic Information System (GIS) layers of the river banks, land use area, overbank flow area and water area estimation. Our results show that the area covered by the water in the lake has increased from 1.28 km2 on January 10, 2010 to 6.25 km2 on May 2, 2010. The total upstream urban area affected by the river blockage is 13.99 km2. We also applied the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to estimate the potential catastrophes due to dam burst for different peak outflow scenarios with conclusions and recommendations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahmad B, Muhammad SK, Butt MJ, Dahri ZH (2010) Hydrological modelling and flood hazard mapping of Nullah Lai. Proc Pak Acad Sci 47(4):215–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker VR (2002) High-energy megafloods: planetary settings and sedimentary dynamics. In: Martini PI, Baker VR, Garzon G (eds) Flood and mega flood processes and deposits: recent and ancient examples. IAHS Special Publication, pp 3–15

  • Booth AM, Roering JJ, Perron JT (2009) Automated landslide mapping using spectral analysis and highresolution topographic data: Puget Sound lowlands, Washington, and Portland Hills, Oregon. Geomorphology 109:132–147. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.02.027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brideau MA, Yan M, Stead D (2009) The role of tectonic damage and brittle rock fracture in the development of large rock slope failures. Geomorphology 103:30–49. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.04.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunner GW (2002) HEC RAS River Analysis System; hydraulic reference manual. US Army Corps of Engineers, Davis

    Google Scholar 

  • Butt MJ, Waqas A, Mahmood R (2010) The combined effect of vegetation and soil erosion in the water resource management. Water Resour Manag 24(13):3701–3714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butt MJ, Mahmood R, Waqas A (2011) Sediments deposition due to soil erosion in the watershed region of mangla dam. Environ Monit Assess 181:419–429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carrara A, Cardinali M, Detti R, Guzzetti F, Pasqui V, Reichenbach P (1990) Geographical information systems and multivariate models in landslide hazard evaluation. In: Proceedings of the 6th international conference and field workshop on landslides: Alps’90, Milan, pp 17–28

  • Cenderelli DA (2000) Floods from natural and artificial dam failures. In: Wohl EE (ed) Inland flood hazards. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 73–103

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Chow VT (1959) Open channel hydraulics. McGraw-Hill, USA, 680 pp

  • Chow VT, Maidment DR, Mays LW (1988) Applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Costa JE, Schuster RL (1988) Formation and failure of Natural dams. Bull Geol Soc Am 100(7):1054–1068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai FC, Lee CF, Deng JH, Tham LG (2005) The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern china. Geomorphology 65(3–4):205–221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Derron MH, Blikra LH, Jaboyedoff M (2005) High resolution digital elevation model analysis for landslide hazard assessment (Åkerneset, Norway). In: Senneset K, Flaate K, Larsen JA (eds) Landslide and avalanches, ICFL, pp 101–106

  • Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ (2008) Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102:85–89. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gee MD (1992) Classification of landslide hazard zonation methods and a test of predictive capability. 6th international symposium on landslides, Christchurch, New Zealand, vol 2, pp 947–952

  • Goudie AS, Brunsden D, Collins DN, Derbyshire E, Ferguson RJ, Jones DKC, Whalley WB (1984) The geomorphology of the Hunza Valley, Karakoram Mountains, Pakistan. In: Miller KJ (ed) The international Karakoram project. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 359–410

    Google Scholar 

  • GSP (2009) http://ndma.gov.pk/Documents/Hunza_Landslide_Report/Report%20of%20Geological%20Survey%20of%20Pakistan%20in%20Pre%20disaster%20period%20of%20Hunza%20Attabad%20Landslide.pdf

  • Hansen A (1984) Landslide hazard analysis. In: Brunsden D, Prior DB (eds) Slope instability. Wiley, Chichester, pp 523–602

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartlen J, Viberg L (1988) General report: evaluation of landslide hazard. Landslides. In: Proceedings of 5th symposium, Lausanne, vol 2, pp 1037–1057

  • Henderson BL, Bui EN, Moran CJ, Simon DAP (2005) Australia-wide predictions of soil properties using decision trees. Geoderma 124(3–4):383–398. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2004.06.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitt K (1968) Studies of the geomorphology of the mountain regions of the upper Indus basin. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. University of London

  • Hutchinson JN (1995) Keynote paper-landslide hazard assessment. In: Proceedings of 6th symposium on landslides, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 1805–1841

  • Jaboyedoff M, Oppikofer T, Abellan A, Derron MH, Loye A, Metzger R, Pedrazzini A (2012) Use of LIDAR in landslide investigations: a review. Nat Hazards 61:5–28. doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9634-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JICA (2007) The project for strengthening of flood risk management in Lai Nullah Basin Expert Team. Inception report. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

  • Johnson CA, Yung AC, Nixon KR, Legates DR (2001) The use of HEC-Geo HMS and HEC-HMS to perform grid-based hydrologic analysis of a watershed. Dodson and Associates, Inc., Houston. www.dodson-hydro.com

  • Khan AN (1995) Landslide hazards and policy response in Pakistan: a case study in muree. Unpublished manuscript

  • Korup O (2002) Recent research on landslide dams—a literature review with special attention to New Zealand. Prog Phys Geogr 26(2):206–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korup O, Tweed F (2007) Ice, moraine, and landslide dams in mountainous terrain. Quatern Sci Rev 26(25–28):3406–3422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kreutzmann H (1994) Habitate conditions and settlement processes in the Hindukush–Karakoram. Petermanns Geogr Mitt 138:337–356

    Google Scholar 

  • Loye A, Jaboyedoff M, Pedrazzini A (2009) Identification of potential rockfall source areas at a regional scale using a DEM-based geomorphometric analysis. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1643–1653. doi:10.5194/nhess-9-1643-2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malik MH, Farooq S (1995) A study of landslide problems, their causes and mitigation in Pakistan. Unpublished manuscript

  • Ouyang W, Hao FH, Zhao C, Lin C (2010) Vegetation response to 30 years hydropower cascade exploitation in upper stream of Yellow River. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 15(7):1928–1941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadrolashrafi SS, Thamer AM, Ahmad RBM, Majid KK, Amir S (2008) Integrated modeling for flood hazard mapping using watershed modeling system. Am J Eng Appl Sci 1:149–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Safer Project Report (2010) Landslide blocks Hunza River in Pakistan—flood breach is imminent: how SAFER contributes to disaster preparedness. Available at http://www.emergencyresponse.eu/gmes/docs_wsw/RUB_129/20100512_ProjectReport_HunzaDam_I1.pdf

  • Said M (1994) Natural hazards of baltistan. Presidential address. Seventh all-Pakistan geography conference. Karachi University, 9

  • Shroder JFJ, Owen L, Derbyshire E (1993) Quaternary glaciation of the Karakoram and Nanga Parbat Himalaya. In: Shroder JF (ed) Himalaya to the sea: geology, geomorphology and the quaternary. Routledge, New York, pp 132–158

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Singhroy V (2009) Satellite remote sensing applications for landslide detection and monitoring. In: Sassa K, Canuti P (eds) Landslides—disaster risk reduction. Springer, Berlin, pp 143–158

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Standley LL, Wenning RJ (2001) Learned discourse: sediment quality values (SQVs): challenges and recommendations. SETAC Globe 2:24–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Sturzenegger M, Stead D (2009) Quantifying discontinuity orientation and persistence on high mountain rock slopes and large landslides using terrestrial remote sensing techniques. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:267–287. doi:10.5194/nhess-9-267-2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thurston N (2000) Transferability and terrain reconstruction within a GIS landslide hazard mapping model: Derbyshire peak district. In: Bromhead AE, Dixon N, Ibsen ML (eds) Landslide in research, theory and practice. Thomas Telford, London, pp 961–968

    Google Scholar 

  • US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) (2001) HEC-RAS, river analysis system, user’s manual version 3.0. Hydrologic Engineering Centre, Davis

  • Van CJ (1993) Application of geographical information systems to landslide hazard zonation. ITC, Enschede

    Google Scholar 

  • Vanacker V, Vanderschaeghe M, Govers G, Willems E, Poesen J, Deckers J, De Bievre B (2003) Linking hydrological, infinite slope stability and land-use change models through GIS for assessing the impact of deforestation on slope stability in high Andean watersheds. Geomorphology 52(3–4):299–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice. Nat Hazards 3

  • Verstraeten G, Van Oost K, Van Rompaey A, Poesen J, Govers G (2002) Evaluating an integrated approach to catchment management to reduce soil loss and sediment pollution through modelling. Soil Use Manag 18(4):386–394. doi:10.1111/j.1475-2743.2002.tb00257.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Voight B, Pariseau WG (1978) Rockslides and avalanches: an introduction. In: Voight B (ed) Rockslides and avalanches. Elsevier, New York, pp 1–67

    Google Scholar 

  • Weerakoon SB (2005) Assessment of seasonal sedimentation in rain-fed irrigation reservoirs by a hillslope erosion modeling approach. J Mt Sci 2:225–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan TZ (1988) Recent advances of quantitative prognoses of landslides in china. Landslides. In: Proceedings of 5th symposium, vol 2, pp 1263–1268

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to COMSATS Institute of Information Technology for providing funds for the current research. The authors are thankful to National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) for providing data for the current study. The authors are also indebted to the Editor of the journal and anonymous referees for their useful suggestions and comments for the completion of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Mohsin Jamil Butt

  2. COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Umar & Raheel Qamar

  3. Shifa College of Medicine, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Raheel Qamar

Authors
  1. Mohsin Jamil Butt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Muhammad Umar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Raheel Qamar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mohsin Jamil Butt.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Butt, M.J., Umar, M. & Qamar, R. Landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood estimation using HEC-RAS model in Northern Pakistan. Nat Hazards 65, 241–254 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0361-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0361-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation