Natural Hazards

, Volume 60, Issue 3, pp 1287–1298 | Cite as

Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China

  • Yaolong Liu
  • Zhenlou Chen
  • Jun Wang
  • Beibei Hu
  • Mingwu Ye
  • Shiyuan Xu
Original Paper


Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools. Results indicate that the elements of risk scenarios include time–space scenarios, disaster scenarios, and man-made scenarios. Ten-year and 100-year typhoon rainstorms and flood hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Wenzhou City. The average rainfall across a 100-year frequency is 450 mm. The extreme water depth of a 100-year flood is 600 mm. High-vulnerability areas are located in Yueqing, Pingyang, Cangnan, and Wencheng counties. The average loss rate of a 100-year flood is more than 50%. The greatest possible loss of floods shows an obvious concentration-diffusion situation. There is an area of about 20–25% flood loss of 6–24 million Yuan RMB/km2 in the Lucheng, Longwan and Ouhai districts. The average loss of a 100-year flood is 12 million Yuan RMB/km2, and extreme loss reaches 49.33 million Yuan RMB/km2. The classification of risk scenario may be used for the choice of risk response priorities. For the next 50 years, the 10-year typhoon rainstorm-flood disaster is the biggest risk scenario faced by most regions of Wenzhou City. For the Yueqing, Ruian, and Ouhai districts, it is best to cope with a 100-year disaster risk scenario and the accompanying losses.


Risk Scenario analysis Typhoon rainstorm-flood Large scale Wenzhou City 



This paper was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 40730526), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951603), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, the Doctor Foundation of Tianjin Normal University (Grant No. 52X09019), and General Project of Humanities and Social Sciences for Tianjin Higher Education Institutions (Grant No. 20092117). We gratefully acknowledge the thoughtful comments of the editor and reviewers.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yaolong Liu
    • 1
    • 2
  • Zhenlou Chen
    • 2
  • Jun Wang
    • 2
    • 3
  • Beibei Hu
    • 4
  • Mingwu Ye
    • 2
  • Shiyuan Xu
    • 2
  1. 1.Science and Technology DepartmentTaiyuan University of TechnologyTaiyuanChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of EducationEast China Normal UniversityShanghaiChina
  3. 3.Natural Resource Ecology LaboratoryColorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA
  4. 4.College of Urban and Environment ScienceTianjin Normal UniversityTianjinChina

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