Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany
Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures. The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is performed.
KeywordsWinter storm Risk Hazard Vulnerability Storm damage Residential buildings Germany
This work is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (http://www.cedim.de), a joint venture of the German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam (GFZ), the University of Karlsruhe (TH) and Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK). We thank the institutions for financial support.
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