The Paris agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change stipulates 2 and 1.5 °C targets, but their consistency with sustainable development is poorly understood. This study focuses on water stress defined by annual water consumption-to-availability ratio (CAR) and analyzes the CAR changes for 32 global regions during this century for scenarios of the 2 and 1.5 °C targets. It also estimates contributions of major factors behind such change for addressing the adaptation planning. The results show that the CARs in many (i.e., 25) regions remain very small (less than 0.1) regardless of the future temperature level. For the other seven regions, the CARs undergo significant changes, while the changes and contributing factors to them are different by region and the future temperature level. Possible adaptation strategies are given for regions of significantly increasing CARs. For instance, in Afghanistan and Pakistan and South Africa, the CARs increase mainly due to increases in irrigation water associated with socioeconomic development (i.e., food demand growth). Decreases in water availability and increases in irrigation water due to climate change also contribute to the CAR increases after 2030. The contributions of other factors (i.e., demand changes in municipal water, water for electricity generation, other industrial water, and water for livestock) are small. In these regions, securing water resources as well as irrigation water conservation are important to avoid worsening of the CAR. Adaptation strategy recommendations for other regions are also presented.
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According to Wada et al. (2012), nonrenewable ground water was abstracted by 234 km3 year−1 in 2000. The abstraction was largest in India, followed by Pakistan, the USA, Iran, China, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. FAO (2016) reported that approximately 5 km3 year−1 desalinated water was produced in around 2005 (FAO 2016). The production is largest in Saudi Arabia, followed by United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, the USA, and so on.
The cumulative CO2 emissions between 2011 and 2100 are 1500 and 750 Gt CO2, for the 2 and 1.5 °C cases, respectively.
Water consumption is estimated based on the same assumption as that of our study (i.e., water consumption corresponds to 10% of water withdrawal.)
Water consumption is estimated based on the same assumption as that of our study (i.e., Water consumption corresponds to 5% of water withdrawal.)
Veldkamp et al. (2015) applied a threshold level of 0.2 to indicate water stress events. In this study, we define, “low or no water stress” for the CAR smaller than 0.1.
The discrepancy between the amount of the original ΔUse and that of the approximate expressions is less than 5% for 85% of the simulations, and less than 10% for over 95% of the simulations.
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Appendix 1 Formulation of the CAR change rate
M: Municipal water
E: Water for electricity generation
OI: Other industrial water
Irri: Irrigation water
L: Water for livestock
R: Renewable water availability (renewable surface and ground water)
Furthermore, we decompose the ∆Use using approximate expressions denoted as Eqs. (A5) and (A6), to understand the individual contributions of municipal water, water for electricity generation, other industrial water, irrigation water, and water for livestock.
The approximation was applied to all regions and cases, confirming that the approximation error for ΔUse is small enough not to affect the evaluation results.Footnote 6
Appendix 2 Regional divisions in this study
Appendix 3 Scenarios on socioeconomic development and food demand
The amounts of the 32 regions are aggregated into the six zones; for the six zones, refer to Table 2.
Appendix 4 Supplements for estimation of water use in the power sector
Appendix 5 Supplements for estimation of water use in other industrial sectors
Appendix 6 Supplements for estimation of the municipal water
The water withdrawal per PA is estimated by country based on Eq. (A7).
where DW is per PA withdrawal, a and b are regression coefficients (a = 2.16 and b = 90 for urban areas, and a = 1.08 and b = 148 for rural areas), and k is a factor to reduce discrepancies between the per PA withdrawal estimated by the regression function and the amount by statistics for the year of 2000 (World Bank 2016).
Appendix 7 Supplements for estimation of the irrigation water
Appendix 8 Water consumption and availability for the six zones
The 32 regions are aggregated into six zones; for the six zones, refer to Table 3.
Appendix 9 The CAR in 2050 and 2100
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Hayashi, A., Sano, F., Nakagami, Y. et al. Changes in terrestrial water stress and contributions of major factors under temperature rise constraint scenarios. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 1179–1205 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-018-9780-5
- Water stress
- Climate change
- 2 and 1.5 °C targets
- Sustainable development
- Water management