Abstract
A crucial aspect of constructing a gridded model of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions involves careful consideration of uncertainty. Both the spatial resolution of the emissions estimates (grid scale) and the selection of proxy data to represent the spatial distribution of emissions, plus the quality of data on point sources of emissions, have important impacts on uncertainty. In earlier papers, we explored the uncertainties associated with grid selection and the available data on large point sources. In this work CO2 emissions data are spatially distributed using population density as the selected proxy, using three different treatments of large point sources, and with five levels of grid resolution (1o, 2o, 3o, 4o, and 5o). The methods of calculating uncertainty associated with grid size, proxy selection, and reported point-source emissions data are presented, with particular attention being drawn to grid size selection. We find that as the resolution becomes coarser, relative uncertainty (total uncertainty as a percentage of total emissions) at the grid cell level decreases. Relative uncertainty in most grid cells decreases as the portion of emissions attributed to specific point sources increases. Good data on large point sources is very important for spatially explicit emissions inventories.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andres RJ, Boden TA, Bréon F–M, Ciais P, Davis S, Erickson D, Gregg JS, Jacobson A, Marland G, Miller J, Oda T, Olivier JGJ, Raupach MR, Rayner P, Treanton K (2012) A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. Biogeosciences 9(5):1845–1871. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-1845-2012
CARMA (2016) Carbon Monitoring for Action, www.CARMA.org
Gurney KR, Mendoza DL, Zhou Y, Fischer ML, Miller CC, Geethakumar S, de la Rue du Can S (2009) High resolution fossil-fuel combustion CO2 emissions fluxes for the United States. Environ Sci Technol 43(14):5535–5541. https://doi.org/10.1021/es900806c
Hogue S, Marland E, Andres RJ, Marland G, Woodard D (2016) Uncertainty in gridded CO2 emissions estimates. Earth’s Future 4(5):225–239. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000343
Hutchins MG, Colby JD, Marland G, Marland E (2016) A comparison of five high-resolution spatially-explicit fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions inventories. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 22(6):947–972. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9709-9
NIST (2015) Measuring smokestack emissions accurately, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 23, 2015. Available at https://www.nist.gov/newsevents/news/2015/11/measuring-smokestack-emissions-accurately
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2015) Landscan. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Available at http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/
Oda T, Maksyutov S (2011) A very high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) global fossil fuel CO2 emission inventory derived using a point source database and satellite observations of night lights. Atmos Chem Phys 11(2):543–556. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-543-2011
Quick JC (2014) Carbon dioxide emission tallies for 210 U.S. coal-fired power plants: a comparison of two accounting methods. J Air Waste Manag Assoc 64(1):73–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2013.833146
Singer AM, Branham M, Hutchins MG, Welker J, Woodard DL, Badurek CA, Ruseva T, Marland E, Marland G (2014) The role of CO2 emissions from large point sources in emissions totals, responsibility, and policy. Environ Sci Policy 44:190–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.001
U.S. Census Bureau (2011) Population Distribution and Change: 2000–2010, 2010 Census Briefs, U.S. Census Burreau, Washington D.C. Available at http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf
U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (2013) Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions at the State Level. U.S. DOE/EIA, Washington, D.C. Available at: http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/
U.S. E.P.A (2014) Clean Energy: eGRID, Ninth Edition With 2010 Data. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/egrid/
U.S. E.P.A (2015) Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) 2011. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Available at: http://www2.epa.gov/ghgreporting
Woodard D, Branham M, Buckingham G, Hogue S, Hutchins M, Gosky R, Marland G, Marland E (2015) A spatial uncertainty metric for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. GHG Measure Manag 4(2-4):139–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430779.2014.1000793
Acknowledgements
This work was aided by support from the Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics at Appalachian State University. We are indebted to Rostyslav Bun for extremely insightful and constructive comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Suggestions from two anonymous reviewers have contributed significantly.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hogue, S., Roten, D., Marland, E. et al. Gridded estimates of CO2 emissions: uncertainty as a function of grid size. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 24, 969–983 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9770-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9770-z