We further develop the mathematical theory of causal interventions, extending earlier results of Korb, Twardy, Handfield, & Oppy, (2005) and Spirtes, Glymour, Scheines (2000). Some of the skepticism surrounding causal discovery has concerned the fact that using only observational data can radically underdetermine the best explanatory causal model, with the true causal model appearing inferior to a simpler, faithful model (cf. Cartwright, (2001). Our results show that experimental data, together with some plausible assumptions, can reduce the space of viable explanatory causal models to one.
KeywordsCausal models Causal discovery Faithfulness Simplicity Intervention Bayesian networks Underdetermination
We are grateful for a Monash Research Fund grant which helped to support this work. We thank Charles Twardy, Lucas Hope, Rodney O’Donnell and anonymous referees for helpful comments on this paper.
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