Estimation of the Expected Number of Earthquake Occurrences Based on Semi-Markov Models

Abstract

The present paper aims at the introduction of the semi-Markov model in continuous time as a candidate model for the description of seismicity patterns in time domain in the Northern Aegean Sea (Greece). Estimators of the semi-Markov kernels, Markov renewal functions and transition functions are calculated through a nonparametric method. Moreover, the hitting times for spatial occurrence of the strongest earthquakes as well as the confidence intervals of certain important indicators are estimated. Firstly, the classification of model states is based on earthquakes magnitude. The instantaneous earthquake occurrence rate between the states of the model as well as the total earthquake occurrence rate are calculated. In order to increase the consistency between the model and the process of earthquake generation, seismotectonic features have been incorporated as an important component in the model. Therefore, a new classification of states is proposed which combines both magnitude and fault orientation states. This model which takes into account seismotectonic features contributes significantly to the seismic hazard assessment in the region under study. The model is applied to earthquake catalogues for the Northern Aegean Sea, an area that accommodates high seismicity, being a key structure from the seismotectonic point of view.