Skip to main content
Log in

Flexible semi-parametric regression of state occupational probabilities in a multistate model with right-censored data

  • Published:
Lifetime Data Analysis Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Inference for the state occupation probabilities, given a set of baseline covariates, is an important problem in survival analysis and time to event multistate data. We introduce an inverse censoring probability re-weighted semi-parametric single index model based approach to estimate conditional state occupation probabilities of a given individual in a multistate model under right-censoring. Besides obtaining a temporal regression function, we also test the potential time varying effect of a baseline covariate on future state occupation. We show that the proposed technique has desirable finite sample performances and its performance is competitive when compared with three other existing approaches. We illustrate the proposed methodology using two different data sets. First, we re-examine a well-known data set dealing with leukemia patients undergoing bone marrow transplant with various state transitions. Our second illustration is based on data from a study involving functional status of a set of spinal cord injured patients undergoing a rehabilitation program.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aalen OO (1976) Non-parametric inference in connection with multiple decrement models. Scan J Stat 3:15–27

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Aalen OO (1978) Non-parametric inference for a family of counting processes. Ann Stat 6:701–726

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Aalen OO (1980) A model for non-parametric regression analysis of counting processes. In: Klonecki W, Kozek A, Rosiski J (eds) Lecture notes on mathematical statistics and probability, vol 2. Springer, New York, pp 1–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Aalen OO (1989) A linear regression model for the analysis of lifetimes. Stat Med 8:907–925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aalen OO, Johansen S (1978) An empirical transition matrix for nonhomogeneous Markov chains based censored observations. Scand J Stat 5:141–150

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Andersen PK, Keiding N (2002) Multi-state models for event history analysis. Stat Methods Med Res 11:91–115

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Andersen PK, Klein JP (2007) Regression analysis for multistate models based on a pseudo-value approach, with application to bone-marrow transplant studies. Scand J Stat 34:3–16

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Barlow RE, Bartholomew DJ, Bremner JM, Brunk HD (1972) Statistical inference under order restrictions. Willey, New York

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Breslow NE (1972) Discussion of the paper by D. R. Cox. J R Stat Soc Ser B 34:216–217

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Copelan EA, Biggs JC, Thompson JM, Crilley P, Szer J et al (1991) Treatment for acute myelocytic leukemia with allogeneic bone marrow transplantation following preparation with BuCy2. Blood 78:838–843

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox DR (1972) Regression model and life-tables. J R Stat Soc Ser B 34:187–220

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Datta S, Satten GA (2001) Validity of the Aalen–Johansen estimators of state occupation probabilities and integrated transition hazards for non-Markov models. Stat Probab Lett 55:403–411

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Datta S, Satten GA (2002) Estimation of integrated transition hazards and stage occupation probabilities for non-Markov system under dependent censoring. Biometrics 58:792–802

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Fine JP, Gray RJ (1999) A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk. J Am Stat Assoc 94:496–509

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Harkema SJ, Schmidt-Read M, Behrman AL, Bratta A, Sisto SA et al (2012) Establishing the NeuroRecovery Network: multisite rehabilitation centers that provide activity-based therapies and assessments for neurologic disorders. Arch Phys Med Rehabil 93:1498–1507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ichimura H, Hall P, Hardle W (1993) Optimal smoothing in single index models. Ann Stat 21:157–178

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Klein JP, Moeschberger ML (1997) Survival analysis: techniques for censored and truncated data. Springer, New York

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Klein RW, Spady RH (1993) An efficient estimator for binary response models. Econometrica 66:387–421

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Koul H, Susarla V, Van Ryzin J (1981) Regression analysis with randomly right censored data. Ann Stat 9:1276–1288

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Leeuw J, Hornik K, Mair P (2009) Isotone optimization in R: pool-adjacent-violators algorithm (PAVA) and active set methods. J Stat Softw 32:1–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li G, Datta S (2001) A bootstrap approach to nonparametric regression for right censored data. Ann Inst Stat Math 53:708–729

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz DJ, Datta S (2015) A nonparametric analysis of waiting times from a multistate model using a novel linear hazards model approach. Electron J Stat 9:419–443

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Marron J (1992) Bootstrap bandwidth selection. In: LePage R, Billard L (eds) Exploring the limits of bootstrap. Wiley, New York, pp 249–262

    Google Scholar 

  • Mostajabi F, Datta S (2013) Nonparametric regression of state occupation, entry, exit, and waiting times with multistate right-censored data. Stat Med 32:3006–3019

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Pepe MS, Cai J (1993) Some graphical displays and marginal regression analysis for recurrent failure times and time dependent covariates. J Am Stat Assoc 88:811–820

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Scheike TH, Zhang M (2007) Direct modelling of regression effects for transition probabilities in multistate models. Scand J Stat 34:17–32

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • van Hedel HJ, Dietz V (2010) Rehabilitation of locomotion after spinal cord injury. Restor Neurol Neurosci 28:123–134

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation and all current and past members of the NeuroRecovery Network for the provision of the spinal cord injury data. Also, we thank the associate editor and two anonymous reviewers for many constructive suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Somnath Datta.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (pdf 251 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Siriwardhana, C., Kulasekera, K.B. & Datta, S. Flexible semi-parametric regression of state occupational probabilities in a multistate model with right-censored data. Lifetime Data Anal 24, 464–491 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-017-9403-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-017-9403-6

Keywords

Navigation