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Use of artificial landscapes to isolate controls on burn probability

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Abstract

Techniques for modeling burn probability (BP) combine the stochastic components of fire regimes (ignitions and weather) with sophisticated fire growth algorithms to produce high-resolution spatial estimates of the relative likelihood of burning. Despite the numerous investigations of fire patterns from either observed or simulated sources, the specific influence of environmental factors on BP patterns is not well understood. This study examined the relative effects of ignitions, fuels, and weather on mean BP and spatial patterns in BP (i.e., BP variability) using highly simplified artificial landscapes and wildfire simulation methods. Our results showed that a limited set of inputs yielded a wide range of responses in the mean and spatial patterning of BP. The input factors contributed unequally to mean BP and to BP variability: so-called top-down controls (weather) primarily influenced mean BP, whereas bottom-up influences (ignitions and fuels) were mainly responsible for the spatial patterns of BP. However, confounding effects and interactions among factors suggest that fully separating top-down and bottom-up controls may be impossible. Furthermore, interactions among input variables produced unanticipated but explainable BP patterns, hinting at complex topological dependencies among the main determinants of fire spread and the resulting BP. The results will improve our understanding of the spatial ecology of fire regimes and help in the interpretation of patterns of fire likelihood on real landscapes as part of future wildfire risk assessments.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by a Joint Fire Sciences Program grant to the authors. We are grateful to Brett Davis for assistance with geographic information systems and to Meg Krawchuk, Max Moritz, Erica Newman, and Diana Stralberg and two anonymous reviewers for providing constructive comments.

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  1. Marc-André Parisien

    Present address: Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320 122nd Street, Edmonton, AB, T5H 3S5, Canada

    Marc-André Parisien

  2. Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT, 59801, USA

    Carol Miller

  3. Western Wildlands Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 3160 NE 3rd Street, Prineville, OR, 97754, USA

    Alan A. Ager

  4. Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 5775 W US Highway 10, Missoula, MT, 59808, USA

    Mark A. Finney

Authors
  1. Marc-André Parisien
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  2. Carol Miller
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  3. Alan A. Ager
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  4. Mark A. Finney
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Correspondence to Marc-André Parisien.

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Parisien, MA., Miller, C., Ager, A.A. et al. Use of artificial landscapes to isolate controls on burn probability. Landscape Ecol 25, 79–93 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9398-9

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