Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002
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The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.
KeywordsSex offenders Recidivism Prediction Static-2002
The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Public Safety Canada or the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. We would like to thank Howard Barbaree, Tony Beech, Susanne Bengtson, Jacques Bigras, Sasha Boer, Andy Haag, Leigh Harkins, Ray Knight, Calvin Langton and Jean Proulx for permission to use their data, and being patient with our ongoing questions.
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