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Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (Amax) with PSHA in Iran

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Abstract

Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (Amax) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of Amax and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of Amax on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the Amax is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of Amax for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully thank the anonymous referees for the constructive comments, which significantly improved this article. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of University of Tehran for this research under grant number 28625/1/03.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Seismology, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Hamid Salahshoor, Elham Shabani & Javad Kazemian

  2. Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya, 10, Moscow, Russia

    Alexey Lyubushin

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  1. Hamid Salahshoor
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  2. Alexey Lyubushin
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  3. Elham Shabani
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  4. Javad Kazemian
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Correspondence to Elham Shabani.

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Salahshoor, H., Lyubushin, A., Shabani, E. et al. Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (Amax) with PSHA in Iran. J Seismol 22, 1515–1527 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9782-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9782-5

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