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Earthquake precursory signatures in electromagnetic radiation measurements in terms of day-to-day fractal spectral exponent variation: analysis of the eastern Aegean 13/04/2017–20/07/2017 seismic activity

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Abstract

The recent seismic activity in the eastern Aegean Sea, foregrounded by two major (ML = 6.1 and ML = 6.2) earthquakes occurring near Lesvos and Kos islands, respectively, is investigated in this work. Electromagnetic radiation measurements across different frequency bands and antenna orientations from a monitoring station in Agia Paraskevi, Lesvos Island, are analysed in order to reveal earthquake precursory signatures hidden in the electromagnetic data sequence. A straightforward, data-driven approach is employed in which day-to-day variations of the fractal characteristics of the measurements are adaptively monitored via a fractal spectral exponent similarity measure. The evolution of the fractal day-to-day variation in a 99-day period, which includes the two major earthquakes, shows a sustained, sudden increase lasting 1 to 4 days before every earthquake cluster of ML = 4.0 and above. Most importantly, this day-to-day variation subsides shortly after and remains relatively low during the absence of earthquakes, thus alleviating the emergence of false alarms.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Automation Engineering, Piraeus University of Applied Sciences, Petrou Ralli & Thivon 250, GR-12244, Aigaleo, Greece

    Demetrios Cantzos

  2. Department of Electronic Computer Systems Engineering, Piraeus University of Applied Sciences, Petrou Ralli & Thivon 250, GR-12244, Aigaleo, Greece

    Dimitrios Nikolopoulos, Ermioni Petraki & Panayotis Yannakopoulos

  3. Department of Electronic Engineering, TEI of Athens, Agiou Spyridonos, GR-12243, Aigaleo, Greece

    Constantinos Nomicos

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  1. Demetrios Cantzos
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  2. Dimitrios Nikolopoulos
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  3. Ermioni Petraki
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Correspondence to Demetrios Cantzos.

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Cantzos, D., Nikolopoulos, D., Petraki, E. et al. Earthquake precursory signatures in electromagnetic radiation measurements in terms of day-to-day fractal spectral exponent variation: analysis of the eastern Aegean 13/04/2017–20/07/2017 seismic activity. J Seismol 22, 1499–1513 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9781-6

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