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Development of Prediction Models for Sickness Absence Due to Mental Disorders in the General Working Population

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Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose This study investigated if and how occupational health survey variables can be used to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) due to mental disorders. Methods Cohort study including 53,833 non-sicklisted participants in occupational health surveys between 2010 and 2013. Twenty-seven survey variables were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression analysis with mental LTSA at 1-year follow-up as outcome variable. The same variables were also used for decision tree analysis. Discrimination between participants with and without mental LTSA during follow-up was investigated by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); the AUC was internally validated in 100 bootstrap samples. Results 30,857 (57%) participants had complete data for analysis; 450 (1.5%) participants had mental LTSA during follow-up. Discrimination by an 11-predictor logistic regression model (gender, marital status, economic sector, years employed at the company, role clarity, cognitive demands, learning opportunities, co-worker support, social support from family/friends, work satisfaction, and distress) was AUC = 0.713 (95% CI 0.692–0.732). A 3-node decision tree (distress, gender, work satisfaction, and work pace) also discriminated between participants with and without mental LTSA at follow-up (AUC = 0.709; 95% CI 0.615–0.804). Conclusions An 11-predictor regression model and a 3-node decision tree equally well identified workers at risk of mental LTSA. The decision tree provides better insight into the mental LTSA risk groups and is easier to use in occupational health care practice.

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Funding

The study was not funded.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Research and Development, Human Total Care, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Marieke F. A. van Hoffen, Giny Norder & Corné A. M. Roelen

  2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Marieke F. A. van Hoffen, Jos W. R. Twisk & Corné A. M. Roelen

  3. Department of Health Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Corné A. M. Roelen

  4. HumanCapitalCare, Laan van Nieuw Oost-Indië 133-G 2593 BM, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Marieke F. A. van Hoffen

Authors
  1. Marieke F. A. van Hoffen
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  2. Giny Norder
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  3. Jos W. R. Twisk
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  4. Corné A. M. Roelen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marieke F. A. van Hoffen.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

The Medical Ethics Committee of the University Medical Center Groningen reviewed the study and granted ethical clearance.

Informed Consent

All occupational health survey participants agreed to the use of their questionnaire results for scientific research.

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van Hoffen, M.F.A., Norder, G., Twisk, J.W.R. et al. Development of Prediction Models for Sickness Absence Due to Mental Disorders in the General Working Population. J Occup Rehabil 30, 308–317 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10926-019-09852-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10926-019-09852-3

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