Projected climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century from ensemble simulations with a high-resolution regional ocean model

Abstract

Future climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) was examined using a high-resolution regional ocean model (10-km mesh) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The range of uncertainty in future projections was estimated from ensemble simulations. Projected results indicated no significant change in the Kuroshio net transport and the latitude of the Kuroshio Extension under both RCP scenarios; the changes were within the range of variability associated with the present climate. Projected sea surface temperature (SST) increased by as much as several degrees Celsius, especially in SST fronts, including the subarctic frontal zone. The significant increase of SST east of Japan was attributed to the northward expansion of the northern part of the subtropical gyre in response to basin-scale atmospheric changes. The projected area of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk decreased in both RCP scenarios. The projected offshore sea-level rise was larger in the subtropical gyre and smaller in the subpolar gyre. The sea-level rise along the coast of Japan, in contrast, showed no significant spatial variation. The mean sea-level rise along the coast of Japan was mostly comparable to the global mean sea-level rise.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17
Fig. 18

References

  1. Aoki K, Kutsuwada K (2008) Verification of the wind-driven transport in the North Pacific subtropical gyre using gridded wind-stress products. J Oceanogr 64:49–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Austermann J, Mitrovica JX (2015) Calculating gravitationally self-consistent sea level changes driven by dynamic topography. Geophys J Int 203:1909–1922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Bryan K (1996) The steric component of sea level rise associated with enhanced greenhouse warming: a model study. Climate Dyn 12:545–555

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Giese BS, Ray S (2011) El Niño variability in simple ocean data assimilation (SODA). J Geophys Res 116(C02):024

    Google Scholar 

  5. Greatbatch RJ (1994) A note on the representation of steric sea level in models that conserve volume rather than mass. J Geophys Res 99:12767–12771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Griffies SM, Greatbatch RJ (2012) Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models. Ocean Model 51:37–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Griffies SM, Hallberg RW (2000) Biharmonic friction with a Smagorinsky-like viscosity for use in large-scale eddy-permitting ocean models. Mon Weather Rev 128:2935–2946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Han W, Stammer D, Thompson P, Ezer T, Palanisamy H, Zhang X, Domingues CM, Zhang L, Yuan D (2019) Impacts of basin-scale climate modes on coastal sea level: a review. Surv Geophys 40:1493–1541. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09562-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hirahara S, Ishii M, Fukuda Y (2014) Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. J Climate 27:57–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Hsieh W, Bryan K (1996) Redistribution of sea level rise associated with enhanced greenhouse warming: a simple model study. Climate Dyn 12:535–544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Hunke EC, Dukowicz JK (1997) An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics. J Phys Oceanogr 27:1849–1867

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Ishizaki H, Yamanaka G (2010) Impact of explicit sun altitude in solar radiation on an ocean model simulation. Ocean Model 33:52–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.12.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Isoda Y, Saitoh S, Mihara M (1991) SST structure of the polar front in the Japan Sea. Elsevier Oceanogr Ser 54:103–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. JMA (2015) Extreme weather report 2014 (in Japanese). https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/climate_change/

  15. JMA (2020) Bulletin of climate monitoring 2019 (in Japanese). https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/monitor/

  16. Kida S, Mitsudera H, Aoki S, Guo X, Ito S, Kobashi F, Kubokawa N, Miyama T, Morie R, Nakamura H, Nakamura T, Nakano H, Nishigaki H, Nonaka M, Sasaki H, Sasaki Y, Suga T, Sugimoto S, Taguchi B, Takaya K, Tozuka T, Tsujino H, Usui N (2015) Oceanic fronts and jets around Japan: a review. J Oceanogr 71:469–497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriyama M, Onoda H, Onogi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Japan 93:5–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Large WG, Yeager SG (2004) Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR technical note, NCAR/TN-460+STR CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research

  19. Li R, Jing Z, Chen Z, Wu L (2017) Response of the Kuroshio extension path state to near-term global warming in CMIP5 experiments with MIROC4h. J Geophys Res 122:2871–2993

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Liu ZJ, Minobe S, Sasaki Y, Terada M (2016) Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS. J Oceanogr 72:905–922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Lorenzo ED, Schneider N, Cobb K, Franks P, Chhak K, Miller A, McWilliams J, Bograd S, Arango H, Curchitser E (2008) North Pacifc Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08607

    Google Scholar 

  22. Losch M, Adcroft A, Campin JM (2004) How sensitive are coarse general circulation models to fundamental approximations in the equations of motion? J Phys Oceanogr 34:306–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Mellor GL, Ezer T (1995) Sea level variations induced by heating and cooling: an evaluation of the Boussinesq approximation in ocean models. J Geophys Res 100:20565–20577

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Mellor GL, Kantha L (1989) An ice-ocean coupled model. J Geophys Res 94:10937–10954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Mertz F, Pujol M, Faugere Y (2018) Product user mannual (cmems-sl-pum-008-032-051). cmems-resources.cls.fr version 4

  27. Minobe S, Terada M, Qiu B, Schneider N (2017) Western boundary sea level: a theory, rule of thumb, and application to climate modes. J Phys Oceanogr 47:957–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Mitrovica J, Tamisiea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA (2001) Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change. Nature 409:1026–1029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Mitrovica J, Gomez N, Morrow E, Hay C, Latychev K, Tamisiea ME (2011) On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints. Geophys J Int 187:729–742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Monterey GI, Levitus S (1997) Climatological cycle of mixed layer depth in the world ocean. U S Gov Printing Office

  31. Nakano H, Tsujino H, Sakamoto K, Urakawa S, Toyoda T, Yamanaka G (2018) Identification of the fronts from the Kuroshio Extension to the subarctic current using absolute dynamic topographies in satellite altimetry products. J Oceanogr 74:393–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Nishikawa H, Nishikawa S, Ishizaki H, Wakamatsu T, Ishikawa Y (2020) Detection of the Oyashio and Kuroshio fronts under the projected climate change in the 21st century. Prog Earth Planet Sci 7:29. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00342-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Nishikawa S, Wakamatsu T, Ishizaki H, Sakamoto K, Tanaka Y, Tsujino H, Yamanaka G, Kamachi M, Ishikawa Y (2021) Development of high-resolution future ocean regional projection datasets for coastal applications in Japan. Prog Earth Planet Sci 8:7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00399-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Noh Y, Kim HJ (1999) Simulations of temperature and turbulence structure of the oceanic boundary layer with the improved near-surface process. J Geophys Res 104:15621–15634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Peltier W (2004) Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age earth: the ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 32:111–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Portner HO, Roberts DC, Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Tignor M, Poloczanska E, Mintenbeck K, Nicolai M, Okem A, Petzold J, Rama B, (eds) NW (2019) Summary for policymakers. In: IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate

  37. Prather MJ (1986) Numerical advection by conservation of second-order moments. J Geophys Res 91:6671–6681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Qiu B, Chen S, Sasaki H (2013) Generation of the North Equatorial Undercurrent jets by triad baroclinic Rossby wave interactions. J Phys Oceanogr 43:2682–2698

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Sakamoto T, Hasumi H, Ishii M, Emori S, Suzuki T, Nishimura T, Sumi A (2005) Responses of the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Extension to global warming in a high-resolution climate model. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14617

    Google Scholar 

  40. Sasaki Y, Minobe S, Miura Y (2014) Decadal sea-level variability along the coast of Japan in response to ocean circulation changes. J Geophys Res 119:266–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Sasaki Y, Washizu R, Yasuda T, Minobe S (2017) Sea level variability around Japan during the twentieth century simulated by a regional ocean model. J Climate 30:5585–5595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Sato Y, Yukimoto S, Tsujino H, Ishizaki H, Noda A (2006) Responses of the North Pacific ocean circulation in a Kuroshio-resolving ocean model to an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation due to greenhouse-gas forcing. J Meteorol Soc Japan 84:295–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Stoacker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V (eds) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  44. Sue Y, Kubokawa A (2015) Latitude of eastward jet prematurely separated from the western boundary in a two-layer quasigeostrophic model. J Phys Oceanogr 45:737–754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Suzuki T, Ishii M (2011) Long-term regional sea level changes due to variations in water mass density during the period 1981–2007. Geophys Res Lett 38(L21):604. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011Gl049326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Suzuki T, Tatebe H (2020) Future dynamic sea level change in the western subtropical North Pacific associated with ocean heat uptake and heat redistribution by ocean circulation under global warming. Prog Earth Planet Sci. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00381-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Terada M, Minobe S (2018) Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis. Climate Dyn 50:4767–4782. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3902-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Toda M, Watanabe M (2020) Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951–2010. Climate Dyn 54:4129–4145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05221-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Tsujino H, Nakano H, Motoi T (2008) Mechanism of currents through the straits of the Japan Sea: mean state and seasonal variation. J Oceanogr 64:141–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Tsujino H, Nakano H, Sakamoto K, Urakawa S, Hirabara M, Ishizaki H, Yamanaka G (2017) Reference manual for the Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model version 4 (MRI.COMv4). Technical Reports of the Meteorological Research Institute, p 80. https://doi.org/10.11483/mritechrepo.80

  52. Wada Y, van Beek L, Weiland F, Chao B, Wu YH, Bierkess M (2012) Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett 39(L09):402

    Google Scholar 

  53. Wakamatsu S, Oshio K, Ishihara K, Murai H, Nakashima T, Inoue T (2017) Estimating regional climate change uncertainty in Japan at the end of the 21st century with mixture distribution. Hydrol Res Lett 11:65–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Wang J, Li C (2017) Low-frequency variability and possible changes in the North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models. J Meteorol Soc Japan 95:199–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Wu L, Cai W, Zhang L, Nakamura H, Timmermann A, Joyce T, McPhaden MJ, Alexander M, Qiu B, Visbeck M, Chang P, Giese B (2012) Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents. Nat Climate Change 2:161–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Yamaguchi K, Noda A (2006) Global warming patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO. J Meteorol Soc Japan 84:221–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Yasuda T, Sakurai K (2006) Interdecadal variability of the sea surface height around Japan. Geophys Res Lett 33:L01605

    Google Scholar 

  58. Yim BY, Kwon M, Min HS, Kug JS (2015) Pacific decadal oscillation and its relation to the extratropical atmospheric variation in CMIP5. Climate Dyn 44:1521–1540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Yin J, Griffies SM, Stouffer RJ (2010) Spatial variability of sea level rise in twenty-first century projections. J Climate 23:4585–4607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J Climate 10:1004–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank many individuals at the atmospheric environment and ocean division of Japan Meteorological Agency for their sustained efforts of ocean observations and analysis of ocean data. Constructive comments made by the two anonymous reviewers were helpful for improving the manuscript. This work was funded by the Meteorological Research Institute. Partial support by MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (TOUGOU: Grant No. JPMXD0717935561 and SICAT: Grant No. JPMXD0715667163) was greatly acknowledged. TW was supported by the Nansen Center (NERSC) basic funding.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Goro Yamanaka.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yamanaka, G., Nakano, H., Sakamoto, K. et al. Projected climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century from ensemble simulations with a high-resolution regional ocean model. J Oceanogr (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-021-00593-7

Download citation

Keywords

  • Future projection
  • Western North Pacific
  • High-resolution ocean model
  • Kuroshio
  • Sea surface temperature
  • Sea surface height
  • Sea ice