Advertisement

Journal of Cultural Economics

, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp 197–218 | Cite as

Expert judgements and the demand for novels in Flanders

  • John Ashworth
  • Bruno Heyndels
  • Kristien Werck
Original Article

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of literary prizes and nominations on the subsequent market success using a panel dataset of Dutch-language titles from January 2003 to June 2005. The analysis indicates winning a prize generally has a positive effect on the ensuing sales, whereas nominations do not generate additional sales. The precise effect differs depending on the particular prize. Winning a “home” debut prize has a significant positive effect on sales, and, to a lesser extent, “established” literary prizes have a significant positive effect on the sales of the winning title, but winning a debut prize in the Netherlands, the neighbouring country, has no effect on sales in Belgium.

Keywords

Books Prizes Sales 

JEL Classification

 Z11 

References

  1. Ackerberg, D. A. (2003). Advertising, learning, and consumer choice in experience good markets: A structural empirical examination. International Economic Review, 44(3), 1007–1040.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ahn, S. C., & Schmidt, P. (1995). Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 5–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Anderson, T. W., & Hsaio, C. (1981). Estimation of dynamic models with error components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, 598–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Arellano, M. (1989). A note on the Anderson–Hsaio estimator for panel data. Economics Letters, 31, 337–341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Basuroy, S., Chatterjee, S., & Abraham Ravid, S. (2003). How critical are critical reviews? The box office effects of film critics, star-power, and budgets. Journal of Marketing, 67(4), 103–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Beck, J. (2007). The sales effect of word of mouth: A model for creative goods and estimates for novels. Journal of Cultural Economics, 31(1), 5–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bittlingmayer, G. (1992). The elasticity of demand for books, resale price maintenance and the lerner index. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 148, 588–606.Google Scholar
  9. Canoy, M., van Ours, J. C., & van der Ploeg, F. (2006). The economics of books. In V. Ginsburgh & D. Throsby (Eds.), Handbook of cultural economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
  10. Caves, R. E. (2000). Creative industries. Contracts between art and commerce. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  11. Caves, R. E., & Greene, D. P. (1996). Brands’ quality levels, prices, and advertising outlays: Empirical evidence on signals and information costs. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 14(1), 29–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Chevalier, J. A., & Mayzlin, D. (2006). The effect of word of mouth on sales: Online book reviews. Journal of Marketing Research, 43, 345–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Clement, M., Proppe, D., & Rott, A. (2007). Do critics make bestsellers? Opinion leaders and the success of books. Journal of Media Economics, 20(2), 77–105.Google Scholar
  14. Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J. G. (1981). Several tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses. Econometrica, 49, 781–793.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. De Grauwe, P., & Gielens, G. (1993). De prijs van het boek en de leescultuur (p. 12). Algemene Reeks: Centrum voor Economische Studiën, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.Google Scholar
  16. De Vany, A., & Walls, W. D. (1996). Bose–Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry. Economic Journal, 106(439), 1493–1514.Google Scholar
  17. Deuchert, E., Adjamah, K., & Pauly, F. (2005). For oscar glory or oscar money? Academy awards and movie success. Journal of Cultural Economics, 29(3), 159–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Dodds, J. C., & Holbrook, M. B. (1988). What’s an oscar worth? An empirical estimation of the effect of nominations and awards on movie distribution and revenues. In B. A. Austin (Ed.), Current research in film: Audiences, economics and the law (Vol. 4, pp. 72–88). Norwood, New Jersey: Ablex Publishing.Google Scholar
  19. Ekelund, B. G., & Börjesson, M. (2002). The shape of the literary career: An analysis of publishing trajectories. Poetics, 30(5–6), 341–364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Eliashberg, J., & Shugan, S. M. (1997). Film critics: Influencers or predictors. Journal of Marketing, 61(2), 68–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Fishwick, F., & Fitzsimmons, S. (1998). Report into the effects of the abandonment of the net book agreement. Cranfield: Cranfield School of Management.Google Scholar
  22. Ginsburgh, V. A. (2003). Awards, success and aesthetic quality in the arts. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(2), 99–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Ginsburgh, V. A., & van Ours, J. (2003). Expert opinion and compensation: Evidence from a musical competition. American Economic Review, 93(1), 289–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hjorth-Andersen, C. (2000). A model of the Danish book market. Journal of Cultural Economics, 24(1), 27–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Holbrook, M. B. (1999). Popular appeal versus expert judgments of motion pictures. Journal of Consumer Research, 26(2), 144–155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Jin, G. Z., & Leslie, P. (2003). The effects of information on product quality: Evidence from restaurant hygiene cards. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 409–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lancaster, K. (1966). A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74, 132–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Larceneux, F., & Vézina, R. (2000). Experiential labels: A response to non observability of cultural product quality. Paper presented at the FOKUS-ACEI joint symposium on incentives and information in cultural economics, January 27–29, Vienna, Austria.Google Scholar
  30. Litman, B. R. (1983). Predicting success of theatrical movies: An empirical study. Journal of Popular Culture, 16, 159–175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Litman, B. R., & Kohl, L. S. (1989). Predicting financial success of motion pictures: The ‘80 s experience. Journal of Media Economics, 2, 35–50.Google Scholar
  32. McFadden, D. L., & Train, K. E. (1996). Consumers’ evaluation of new products: Learning from self and others. Journal of Political Economy, 104(4), 683–703.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Montgomery, C. A., & Wernerfelt, B. (1992). Risk reduction and umbrella branding. Journal of Business, 65, 31–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Nederlands Bibliografisch Centrum. (2002). Jaarverslag NBC, 20002002 [http://www.kb.nl/dnp/nbc/nbc-jv2002.html].
  35. Nelson, R. A., Donihue, M. R., Waldman, D. M., & Wheaton, C. (2001). What’s an Oscar worth? Economic Inquiry, 39(1), 1–16.Google Scholar
  36. Prag, J., & Casavant, J. (1994). An empirical study of the determinants of revenues and marketing expenditures in the motion picture industry. Journal of Cultural Economics, 18(3), 217–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Prieto-Rodríguez, J., Romero-Jordán, D., & Sanz-Sanz, J. F. (2004). Is a tax cut on cultural goods consumption actually desirable? Paper presented at the AEA Conference on the Econometrics of Cultural Goods, Padova, April 22–23, 2004.Google Scholar
  38. Ravid, S. A. (1999). Information, blockbusters, and stars: A study of the film industry. Journal of Business, 72(4), 463–492.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Reddy, S. K., Swaminathan, V., & Motley, C. M. (1998). Exploring the determinants of broadway show success. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(3), 370–383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Reinstein, D. A., & Snyder, C. M. (2005). The influence of expert reviews on consumer demand for experience goods: A case study of movie critics. Journal of Industrial Economics, 53(1), 27–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Ringstad, V., & Løyland, K. (2006). The demand for books estimated by means of consumer survey data. Journal of Cultural Economics, 30(2), 141–155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Smith, S. P., & Smith, V. K. (1986). Successful movies: A preliminary empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 18(5), 501–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Sochay, S. (1994). Predicting the performance of motion pictures. Journal of Media Economics, 7(4), 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Sorensen, A. T. (2007). Bestseller lists and product variety: The case of book sales. Stanford graduate school of business. Journal of Industrial Economics, 55(4), 715–738.Google Scholar
  45. Sorensen, A. T., & Rasmussen, S. J. (2004). Is any publicity good publicity? A note on the impact of book reviews. Working Paper: Stanford Graduate School of Business.Google Scholar
  46. Szenberg, M., & Lee, E. (1987). Empirical estimation of demand and supply of books in the United States, 1966–1982. In D. V. Shaw, W. S. Hendon, & C. Richard Waits (Eds.), Artists and cultural consumers (pp. 207–215). Akron, Ohio: Association for Cultural Economics.Google Scholar
  47. Wallace, W. T., Seigerman, A., & Holbrook, M. B. (1993). The role of actors and actresses in the success of films: How much is a movie star worth? Journal of Cultural Economics, 17(1), 1–28.Google Scholar
  48. Werck, K., & Heyndels, B. (2007). Prizes for children’s books: Expert judgments by adults and children. Working Paper, Vrije Universiteit Brussel.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Economics and FinanceUniversity of DurhamDurhamUK
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsVrije Universiteit BrusselBrusselBelgium
  3. 3.Faculty of History and ArtsErasmus UniversityRotterdamthe Netherlands

Personalised recommendations