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A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia

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Abstract

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

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Acknowledgements

Sincere thanks to the Director General of Health for granting permission to publish the report, IHSR, Planning Division and those relevant department including Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM) and Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia (FRGS/2/2013/ICT07/FTMK/02/7/F00190).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Optimisation, Modelling, Analysis and Simulation (OptiMAS) Research Group, Faculty of Information & Communication Technology, Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Hang Tuah Jaya, 76100 Durian Tunggal, Melaka, Malaysia

    Zuraida Abal Abas, Mohamad Raziff Ramli, Mohamad Ishak Desa, Zaheera Zainal Abidin, Abdul Samad Shibghatullah & Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul Rahman

  2. Planning Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Kompleks E, Presint 1, Pusat Pentadbiran Kerajaan Persekutuan, 62590, Putrajaya, Malaysia

    Nordin Saleh, Ainul Nadziha Hanafiah & Nuraini Aziz

  3. Excellence Centre of Innovation, Technology and Entrepreneurship Development (ExCITED), Faculty of Technology Management and Technopreneurship, Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Hang Tuah Jaya, Durian Tunggal, 76100, Melaka, Malaysia

    Haslinda Musa

Authors
  1. Zuraida Abal Abas
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  2. Mohamad Raziff Ramli
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  3. Mohamad Ishak Desa
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  4. Nordin Saleh
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  5. Ainul Nadziha Hanafiah
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  6. Nuraini Aziz
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  7. Zaheera Zainal Abidin
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  8. Abdul Samad Shibghatullah
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  9. Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul Rahman
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  10. Haslinda Musa
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zuraida Abal Abas.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 3 Student intake for diploma and degree nursing programmes and community nurse training programme from 2008 to 2030. Source: MOH
Full size table
Table 4 List of selected variables/stocks and its equations in the Vensim simulation model
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Abas, Z.A., Ramli, M.R., Desa, M.I. et al. A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia. Health Care Manag Sci 21, 573–586 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-017-9413-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-017-9413-7

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