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Systemic geopolitical modeling. Part 1: prediction of geopolitical events

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Abstract

We give two general mathematical models predicting geopolitical events into a geopolitical system according to Mazis’ lakatosian formulation methodology for a Systemic Geopolitical Analysis. To this end, we consider weighted geopolitical indices and their measurements. When the weighted geopolitical indices, as well as the related geopolitical measurements take values in different times and different geographical points, then they form two sets in the four-dimensional Euclidean space. The distance between these sets can be considered as a measure for assessing the occurrence or not of a geopolitical event. To this direction, we give general frameworks of two algorithms for determining the time moments and geographical points at which is expected the appearance of peculiar geopolitical events.

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Notes

  1. Reproducibility also refers to the ability of an entire experiment or study to be reproduced, either by the researcher or by someone else working independently. It is one of the main principles of the scientific method and relies on ceteribus paribus. The result values are said to be commensurate if they are obtained (in distinct experimental trials) according to the same reproducible experimental description and procedure. The basic idea can be seen in Aristotle's dictum that there is no scientific knowledge of the individual, where the word used for individual in Greek had the connotation of the idiosyncratic, or wholly isolated occurrence. Thus all knowledge, all science, necessarily involves the formation of general concepts and the invocation of their corresponding symbols in language (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproducibility).

  2. CTQ is a characteristic of a product or service which fulfills a critical customer requirement. CTQ’s are the basic elements to be used in driving process measurement, improvement, and control.

  3. As usually, \(\left( {P_{1/S}^{\left( j \right)} , \ldots ,P_{{N_{j} /S}}^{\left( j \right)} } \right)\) represents N j intrinsic properties (physical characteristics) into the system.

  4. According to Proposition 6.2. i, a suitable selection of the M + 1 time moments tv is given by the formula

    $$t_{v} = \frac{{T_{1} - T_{0} }}{2}\cos \left( {\frac{2v + 1}{2v + 2}\pi } \right) + \frac{{T_{1} + T_{0} }}{2}$$

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics and Engineering Sciences, Hellenic Military Academy, 166 73, Vari Attikis, Greece

    Nicholas J. Daras

  2. Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 26, Kaplanon Str., 106 80, Athens, Greece

    John Th. Mazis

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  1. Nicholas J. Daras
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  2. John Th. Mazis
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Correspondence to Nicholas J. Daras.

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Daras, N.J., Mazis, J.T. Systemic geopolitical modeling. Part 1: prediction of geopolitical events. GeoJournal 80, 653–678 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-014-9569-3

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