Advertisement

Fire Technology

, Volume 55, Issue 4, pp 1349–1375 | Cite as

Probabilistic Analysis of Building Fire Severity Based on Fire Load Density Models

  • Qinghai Xie
  • Jianzhuang XiaoEmail author
  • Paolo Gardoni
  • Kexu Hu
Article

Abstract

This paper presents the compilation of 35 fire load density surveys for office and residential buildings. Limited data can be obtained for contemporary buildings. Using recent fire load survey results and the Bayesian inference theory, probabilistic fire load density models are proposed for office buildings (up to 120 m2 floor area) and for residential buildings (up to 35 m2 floor area). These models predict that the mean fire load density decreases when the floor area becomes larger. Meanwhile, given floor area, the models indicate that the fire load density follows the lognormal distribution. Statistics of fire load density are then calculated and explicitly presented for a direct reference in fire safety design. Afterwards, these models are incorporated in the parametric temperature model presented in the Eurocode to predict the maximum temperature within fire compartments. Parameter uncertainties are also considered, including the variations in opening factor and thermal absorptivity of enclosure that are observed from 57 experiments. Based on the proposed fire load density models, building fire severity is estimated using empirical equation in the Eurocode considering the influence of these parameters. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain the statistical values of the maximum temperature and fire severity. The results in this work can be used in a performance-based fire safety design.

Keywords

Fire load density Compartment temperature Building fire severity Bayesian inference Performance-based design 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge the research grants from the China Scholarship Council and from the Chinese National 973 Plan (2012CB719703).

References

  1. 1.
    Gardoni P, LaFave JM (2016) Multi-hazard approaches to civil infrastructure engineering. Springer, Berlin.  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2 Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Xiao JZ (2015) Fire safety design principle of high performance concrete structures. Science Press, OttawaGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Hassanain MA (2009) On the challenges of evacuation and rescue operations in high-rise buildings. Struct Surv 27(2):109–118.  https://doi.org/10.1108/02630800910956443 Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Eurocode (2002) Eurocode 1: actions on structures part 1–2: general actions—actions on structures exposed to fireGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Melinek SJ (1993) The distribution of fire load. Fire Saf J 20(1):83–88.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0379-7112(93)90013-g Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Thauvoye C, Zhao B, Klein J, Fontana M (2008) Fire load survey and statistical analysis. Fire Saf Sci 9:991–1002.  https://doi.org/10.3801/iafss.fss.9-991 Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Thomas PH (1986) Design guide: structure fire safety CIB W14 workshop report. Fire Saf J 10(2):77–137.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0379-7112(86)90041-x Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Zalok E, Eduful J (2013) Assessment of fuel load survey methodologies and its impact on fire load data. Fire Saf J 62:299–310.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2013.08.011 Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Kumar S, Rao C (1997) Fire loads in office buildings. J Struct Eng ASCE 123(3):365–368.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9445(1997)123:3(365) Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Culver CG (1976) Survey results for fire loads and live loads in office buildings. US Department of Commerce, National Bureau of StandardsGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Bwalya A (2008) An overview of design fires for building compartments. Fire Technol 44(2):167–184.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-007-0031-7 Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Ma ZC, Makelainen P (2000) Parametric temperature–time curves of medium compartment fires for structural design. Fire Saf J 34(4):361–375.  https://doi.org/10.1016/s0379-7112(00)00008-4 Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Lennon T, Moore D (2003) The natural fire safety concept—full-scale tests at Cardington. Fire Saf J 38(7):623–643.  https://doi.org/10.1016/s0379-7112(03)00028-6 Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Su JZ, Taber BC (2005) Full-scale fire study of spatial separation. Research Report: IRC-RR-195Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Feasey R, Buchanan A (2002) Post-flashover fires for structural design. Fire Saf J 37(1):83–105.  https://doi.org/10.1016/s0379-7112(01)00026-1 Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Johansson N (2014) Numerical experiments and compartment fires. Fire Sci Rev 3(2):1–12.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s40038-014-0002-2 Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Harmathy TZ (1987) On the equivalent fire exposure. Fire Mater 11(2):95–104.  https://doi.org/10.1002/fam.810110206 Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Law M (1971) A relationship between fire grading and building design and contents. Fire Saf Sci 877:1–45Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Pettersson O (1973) The connection between a real fire exposure and the heating conditions according to standard fire resistance tests: with special application to steel structures. Lund Institute of Technology, Division of Structural Mechanics and Concrete ConstructionGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Kodur VKR, Pakala P, Dwaikat MB (2010) Energy based time equivalent approach for evaluating fire resistance of reinforced concrete beams. Fire Saf J 45(4):211–220.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2010.03.002 Google Scholar
  21. 21.
    SFPE (2016) SFPE handbook of fire protection engineering. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Eduful J (2012) Correlation of fire load survey methodologies towards design fires for office buildings. Carleton University, OttawaGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Kumar S, Rao CVSK (1995) Fire load in residential buildings. Build Environ 30(2):299–305.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0360-1323(94)00043-r Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Bwalya A, Lougheed G, Kashef A, Saber H (2011) Survey results of combustible contents and floor areas in Canadian multi-family dwellings. Fire Technol 47(4):1121–1140.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-009-0130-8 Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Bwalya AC, Sultan MA, Bénichou N (2004) A pilot survey of fire loads in Canadian homes. Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council Canada, OttawaGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Bwalya AC (2004) An extended survey of combustible contents in Canadian residential living rooms. Institute for Research in Construction, OttawaGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Dunham JW, Connor WJO, Ingberg SH, Thorud MB, Diener CN (1942) Fire resistance classifications of building constructions. Buildings Materials and Structures Report BMS 92. National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Ingberg SH, Dunham JW, Thompson JP (1957) Combustible contents in buildings. US Department of Commerce, National Bureau of StandardsGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Bryson J, Gross D (1968) Techniques for the survey and evaluation of live floor loads and fire loads in modern office buildings. National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Baldwin R, Law M, Allen G, Griffiths LG (1970) Survey of fire loads in modern office buildings-some preliminary results. Fire Saf Sci 808:1–20Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    Barnett CR (1984) Pilot fire load survey. Project Report No. 3580. New Zealand Fire Protection Association, MacDonald Barnett Partners, Auckland, New ZealandGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Narayanan P (1995) Fire severities for structural fire engineering design. BRANZGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Caro TC, Milke JA (1996) A survey of fuel loads in contemporary office buildings. US Department of Commerce, Technology AdministrationGoogle Scholar
  34. 34.
    Yii HW (2000) Effect of surface area and thickness on fire loads. Research report 00/13, University of Canterbury, New ZealandGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Korpela K, Keski-Rahkonen O (2000) Fire loads in office buildings. Paper presented at the Proceedings of 3rd international conference on performance-based codes and fire safety design methods, society of fire protection engineers, Bethesda, MDGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Wang N (2013) Performance-based design of high-rise buildings of the fire load. Chongqing University, Chongqing.  https://doi.org/10.7666/d.d355339 Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    Zhai Y (2013) Survey and statistical parameters of office building fire load. Build Sci 29(07):122–123.  https://doi.org/10.13614/j.cnki.11-1962/tu.2013.07.027 Google Scholar
  38. 38.
    Issen LA (1980) Single-family residential fire and live loads survey. US Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    Campbell JA (1981) Confinement of fire in buildings. In: Fire protection handbook. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MAGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Kose S, Motishita Y, Hagiwara I (1989) Survey of movable fire load in Japanese dwellings. Fire Saf Sci 2:403–412Google Scholar
  41. 41.
    Bush B, Anno G, McCoy R, Gaj R, Small RD (1991) Fuel loads in US cities. Fire Technol 27(1):5–32Google Scholar
  42. 42.
    Li T, Zhang M, Xue YH (2009) Survey and statistical analysis of live fire loads of residential building bedrooms in Central Plains region. J Nat Disasters 18(2):39–43.  https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2009.02.006 Google Scholar
  43. 43.
    Wang JP, Zhu J, Liu HT, Zhao XF (2010) The investigation analysis of live fire load for beijing residential building and the characteristic value determination. Build Sci 26(01):24–27.  https://doi.org/10.13614/j.cnki.11-1962/tu.2010.01.006 Google Scholar
  44. 44.
    Liu YC, Liu DD, Wang JP, Chen WH, Zhao B (2012) Probability model of Beijing residential fire load. Adv Mater Res 368:993–1002.  https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.368-373.993 Google Scholar
  45. 45.
    Culver CG (1978) Characteristics of fire loads in office buildings. Fire Technol 14(1):51–60.  https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01997261 Google Scholar
  46. 46.
    Khorasani NE, Garlock M, Gardoni P (2014) Fire load: survey data, recent standards, and probabilistic models for office buildings. Eng Struct 58:152–165.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.07.042 Google Scholar
  47. 47.
    Gardoni P, Der Kiureghian A, Mosalam KM (2002) Probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimates for reinforced concrete columns based on experimental observations. J Eng Mech 128(10):1024–1038.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9399(2002)128:10(1024)Google Scholar
  48. 48.
    Efron B, Hinkley DV (1978) Assessing the accuracy of the maximum likelihood estimator: observed versus expected Fisher information. Biometrika 65(3):457–482.  https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/65.3.457 MathSciNetzbMATHGoogle Scholar
  49. 49.
    Liu P, Der Kiureghian A (1986) Multivariate distribution models with prescribed marginals and covariances. Probab Eng Mech 1(2):105–112Google Scholar
  50. 50.
    Hamada MS, Wilson A, Reese CS, Martz H (2008) Bayesian reliability. Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin.  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77950-8 zbMATHGoogle Scholar
  51. 51.
    Vassart O, Zhao B, Cajot LG, Robert F, Meyer U, Frangi A, Poljanšek M, Nikolova B, Sousa L, Dimova S (2014) Eurocodes: background and applications structural fire design. JRC science and policy records. European UnionGoogle Scholar
  52. 52.
    Box GE, Tiao GC (2011) Bayesian inference in statistical analysis. Wiley, New York.  https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118033197 zbMATHGoogle Scholar
  53. 53.
    Lonnermark A, Blomqvist P, Mansson M, Persson H (1996) Toxfire-fire characteristics and smoke gas analysis in under-ventilated large-scale combustion experiments. Tests in the ISO 9705 room. SP Report 45Google Scholar
  54. 54.
    Lonnermark A, Babrauskas V (1996) Toxfire-fire characteristics and smoke gas analyses in under-ventilated large-scale combustion experiments. Storage configuration tests. SP report 46Google Scholar
  55. 55.
    Blackmore J, Brescianini C, Collins G, Delichatsios MA, Everingham G, Ralph R, Thomas I, Beever P (1999) Room and furnace tests of fire rated construction, New South Wales, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
  56. 56.
    Kirby BR, Wainman DE, Tomlinson TL, Kay TR, Peacock BN (1999) Natural fires in large scale compartments. Int J Eng Perform Based Fire Codes 1(2):43–58Google Scholar
  57. 57.
    Girgis N (2000) Full-scale compartment on fire experiments on “upholstered furniture”. University of Canterbury, ChristchurchGoogle Scholar
  58. 58.
    Bailey CG, Lennon T (2008) Full-scale fire tests on hollowcore floors. Struct Eng 86(6):33–39Google Scholar
  59. 59.
    Helton JC, Davis FJ (2003) Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 81(1):23–69.  https://doi.org/10.1016/s0951-8320(03)00058-9 Google Scholar
  60. 60.
    Bisby L, Gales J, Maluk C (2013) A contemporary review of large-scale non-standard structural fire testing. Fire Sci Rev 2(1):1–27.  https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-0414-2-1 Google Scholar
  61. 61.
    Hopkin D (2017) A review of fire resistance expectations for high-rise UK apartment buildings. Fire Technol 53(1SI):87-106.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-016-0571-9 Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Qinghai Xie
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jianzhuang Xiao
    • 1
    Email author
  • Paolo Gardoni
    • 2
  • Kexu Hu
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Structural EngineeringTongji UniversityShanghaiChina
  2. 2.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Illinois at Urbana–ChampaignChampaignUSA
  3. 3.Research Institute of Structural Engineering and Disaster ReductionTongji UniversityShanghaiChina

Personalised recommendations