Advertisement

Environment Systems & Decisions

, Volume 33, Issue 1, pp 89–103 | Cite as

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

  • Michelle C. Hamilton
  • Shital A. Thekdi
  • Elisabeth M. Jenicek
  • Russell S. Harmon
  • Michael E. Goodsite
  • Michael P. Case
  • Christopher W. Karvetski
  • James H. Lambert
Article

Abstract

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.

Keywords

Scenario analysis Risk analysis Decision analysis Sustainability Adaptive management Water resource management Energy infrastructure Infrastructure corridors Climate change 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank Igor Linkov for the organization of the NATO Conference on Sustainable Cities and Military Installations, Hella, Iceland, June 3–6, 2012. We are grateful to additional participants of the conference “water” working group including Anna Gammelgaard Jensen, Elisa Tatham, Wendi Goldsmith, Beth Fleming, Margaret MacDonell, Don Lewis, Abou Bakr Ramadan, Bojan Srdjevic, Leslie Gillespie-Marthaler who contributed discussion during the workshop that improved this paper.

References

  1. Brekke LD, Kiang JE, Olsen JR, Pulwarty RS, Raff DA, Turnipseed DP, Webb RS, White KD (2009) Climate change and water resources management: a federal perspective. Circular 1331. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod
  2. Brissette F, Leconte R, Minville M, Rene R (2006) Can we adequately quantify the increase/decrease of flooding due to climate change? IEEE CNF 10–12 May 2006Google Scholar
  3. Cai X, Wang D, Zhu T, Ringler C (2009) Assessing the regional variability of GCM simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 36 (L02706). Available at http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL036443.shtml. Accessed November 15, 2012
  4. Constantini V, Gracceva F, Markandya A, Vicini G (2007) Security of energy supply: comparing scenarios from a European perspective. Energy Policy 35:210–226CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Desantis LRG, Bhotika S, Williams K, Putz FE (2007) Sea-level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. Glob Chang Biol 13:2349–2360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Far West Texas Water Planning Group (FWTWPG) (2006) Far West Texas water plan. Prepared for the Texas Water Development Board, January 2006Google Scholar
  7. Fort Belvoir Energy Working Group (2010–2011) Participants included Fort Belvior, IMCOM, Installation Department of Public Works, Department of Energy, Sandia National Laboratories, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, University if Virginia, local gas and electric companies and technology vendorsGoogle Scholar
  8. Gunderson L (1999) Resilience, flexibility and adaptive management—antidotes for spurious certitude? Conserv Ecol 3(1):7Google Scholar
  9. Hamilton MC, Lambert JH, Keisler JH, Holcomb FH, Linkov I (2012) Research and development priorities for energy islanding of military and industrial installations. ASCE J Infrastruct Syst (to appear)Google Scholar
  10. Healy RW, Winter TC, LaBaugh JW, Franke OL (2007) Water budgets: foundations for effective water-resources and environmental management. US Geological Survey (USGS) Circular 1308. USGS, Reston, VA, 90 pp. Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2007/1308/ (Accessed 26 May 2010)
  11. Holling CS (ed) (1978) Adaptive environmental assessment and management. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  12. Hutchison, WR (2004) Hueco Bolson groundwater conditions and management in the El Paso Area. EPWU Hydrogeology Report 04-01Google Scholar
  13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, summary for policy-makers, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  14. Jenicek EM, Fournier DF (2011) Planning for sustainable water supplies for U.S. army installations. Engineer Research and Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, USA, Building Research Council University of Illinois, USAGoogle Scholar
  15. Jenicek EM, Myers N, Fournier DF, Miller K, Hessel M, Carroll R, Holmes R (2009) Army installation water sustainability assessment: an evaluation of vulnerability to water supply. Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL), U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center. ERDC/CERL—TR-09-38Google Scholar
  16. Jenicek EM, Fournier DF, Miller K, Hessel M, Holmes R, Kodack M (2010a) Assessing water sustainability of army installations. Environ Pract 12(4):366–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jenicek EM, Myers NRD, Curvey L, Nemeth SB (2010b) Army overseas water sustainability study. Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL), U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center. ERDC/CERL TR-10-DraftGoogle Scholar
  18. Jenicek EM, Carroll RA, Curvey LE, Hessel MS, Holmes RM, Pearson E (2011) Water sustainability assessment for ten army installations. construction engineering research laboratory (CERL), U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center. ERDC/CERL TR-11-DraftGoogle Scholar
  19. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH (2012) Evaluating deep uncertainties in strategic priority-setting with an application to facility energy investments. Syst Eng 15(4):483–493Google Scholar
  20. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH, Linkov I (2009) Emergent conditions and multicriteria analysis in infrastructure prioritization for developing countries. J Multiple Criteria Decis Anal 16(5):125–137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH, Linkov I (2011a) Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 7(2):228–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH, Keisler JM, Linkov I (2011b) Integration of decision analysis and scenario planning for coastal engineering and climate change. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Part A 41(1):63–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH, Keisler JM, Sexauer B, Linkov I (2011c) Climate change scenarios: risk and impact analysis for Alaska coastal infrastructure. Int J Risk Assess Manag 15(2/3):258–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Knogge T, Schrmer M, Schuchardt B (2004) Landscape-scale socio-economics and sea-level rise. Ibis 146(1):11–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Knuuti K (2002) Planning for sea level rise: U.S. army corps of engineers policy. In Ewing L, Wallendrof L (eds) Conference proceedings of solutions to coastal disasters conferenceGoogle Scholar
  26. Lambert JH, Karvetski CW, Ditmer RD, Abdallah T, Johnson MD, Linkov I (2011) Energy security for industrial and military installations: emergent conditions that influence the strategic selection of technologies. In: Gheorghe A, Muresan L (ed) Energy security: international and local issues, theoretical perspectives, and critical energy infrastructures. Springer, Dordrecht Netherlands, pp 317–332Google Scholar
  27. Lambert JH, Thekdi SA, Zhou Q (2012a) Land development risk analysis for multimodal transportation corridors. Virginia Center for Transportation Innovation & Research Contract report, Virginia 2012Google Scholar
  28. Lambert JH, Wu YJ, You H, Clarens A, Smith B (2012) Future climate change and priority setting for transportation infrastructure assets. ASCE J Infrastruct Syst. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000094
  29. Lettenmaier D, Major D, Poff L, Running S (2008) The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. In: Walsh M (ed) Synthesis and assessment product 4.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  30. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch R, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863):573–574Google Scholar
  31. Mintzer I, Leonard J, Schwartz P (2003) US energy scenarios for the 21st century. Pew Center on Global Climate Change. <http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/EnergyScenarios.pdf> (Accessed 20 May 2009)
  32. Nakićenović N (2000) Energy scenarios. Chapter 9 in United Nations Development Programme. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Energy Council. World Energy Assessment, New York 2000Google Scholar
  33. National Science and Technology Council (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  34. Owenby J, Heim R, Jr., Burgin M, Ezell D (2001) Climatography of the U.S. No. 81 Supplemental 3: maps of annual 1961–1990 normal temperature, precipitation and cooling degree days. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite and Information Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Washington, DC. Available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/documentlibrary/clim81supp3/clim81.html. Accessed 25 May 2010
  35. Peach J, Williams J (2003) Population dynamics of the U.S. Mexican border region. Unpublished, forthcoming Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP) Monograph. SCERP/SDSU Press, San Diego. Available at http://www.scerp.org/population.htm Accessed 25 May 2010
  36. Quadrennial Defense Review (2010) U.S. Department of Defense. Renewable Energy Rodeo in Fort Bliss, TX. 2010Google Scholar
  37. Swart RJ, Raskin P, Robinson J (2004) The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Glob Environ Chang 14:137–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Thekdi SA, Lambert JH (2012) Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems. Risk Anal 32(7):1253–1269Google Scholar
  39. Tonn B, Healy KC, Gibson A, Ashish A, Cody P, Beres D, Lulla S, Maxur J, Ritter AJ (2009) Power from perspective: potential future United States energy portfolios. Energy Policy 37:1432–1443CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. United Nations University-Millennium Project (2008) Global Energy Scenarios. <http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/scenarios/energy-scenarios.html> (Accessed 20 May 2009)
  41. United States Army (2000) The army sustainable design and development policy. <http://army-energy.hqda.pentagon.mil/programs/sustainable.asp>
  42. United States Army (2005) The U.S. army energy strategy for installations. <http://army-energy.hqda.pentagon.mil/docs/strategy.pdf.> (Accessed 24 July 2009)
  43. United States Army (2007) The U.S. army energy and water campaign plan for installations. <http://army-energy.hqda.pentagon.mil/ docs/AEWCampaignPlan.pdf> (Accessed 2 July 2009)
  44. United States Army (2008) Army energy security strategic implementation plan (AESSIP) (Draft)Google Scholar
  45. United States Army (2010) Army sustainability campaign plan (ASCP), May 2010. <http://aec.army.mil/usaec/sustainability/campaign-plan_2010.pdf> (Accessed 13 June 2012)
  46. United States Army Corps of Engineers (2009a) Water resource policies and authorities incorporating sea-level change considerations in civil works programs. Circular No. 1165-2-211Google Scholar
  47. United States Army Corps of Engineers (2009b) Alaska baseline erosion assessment. Accessed 25 Aug 2009: < http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/docs/ iaw_USACE_erosion_rpt.pdf>
  48. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2009) Alaska Baseline erosion assessment. USACE Alaska District, Elemendorf Air Force Base, Alaska, USA, March 2009Google Scholar
  49. Wendler G, Shulski M (2009) A century of climate change for fairbanks, Alaska. Arctic 62(3):295–300Google Scholar
  50. Williams J (2009) Phone conversation between assistant plant supervisor and Kevin Miller, ERDC-CERLGoogle Scholar
  51. World Energy Council (2007) Deciding the future: energy policy scenarios to 2050. <http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/scenarios_study_online.pdf> (Accessed 10 Sept 2009)
  52. Zhou Q, Lambert JH, Karvetski CW, Keisler JM, Linkov I (2012) Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses. Risk Anal 32(11):1873–1887Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michelle C. Hamilton
    • 1
  • Shital A. Thekdi
    • 6
  • Elisabeth M. Jenicek
    • 2
  • Russell S. Harmon
    • 3
  • Michael E. Goodsite
    • 4
  • Michael P. Case
    • 2
  • Christopher W. Karvetski
    • 5
  • James H. Lambert
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Systems and Information EngineeringUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleUSA
  2. 2.Construction Engineering Research LaboratoryU.S. Army Engineer Research Development CenterChampaignUSA
  3. 3.International Research OfficeU.S. Army Engineer Research and Development CenterRuislipUK
  4. 4.Aarhus University Herning and Nordic Center of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation ResearchAarhusDenmark
  5. 5.Department of Applied Information TechnologyGeorge Mason UniversityFairfaxUSA
  6. 6.Robins School of BusinessUniversity of RichmondRichmondUSA

Personalised recommendations