Abstract
The present study investigates the relationship between land degradation and the evolution of the productive structure in Italy during the last 50 years (1960–2010). The objectives of the study are twofold: (i) to present and discuss an original analysis of the income–environment relationship in an economic-convergent and environmental–divergent country and (ii) to evaluate the impact of the (changing) productive structure and selected socio-demographic characteristics on the level of land vulnerability. The econometric analysis indicates that the relationship between GDP and land degradation across Italian provinces is completely reverted once we move from a cross-sectional analysis to panel estimates. While economic and environmental disparities between provinces go in the same direction, with richer provinces having lower levels of LD, over time the growth process increases LD with the economic structure acting as a significant variable.
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Notes
This LD index ranges from 1 to 2. The ESAI procedure is described in the sample descripition section.
We lag the ESAI in the Figure by 5 years since we consider the process of growth to act in-time and that this process causes, with a delay, a change in the environmental GINI. In other words economic changes happen fist and exert a delayed effect on LD.
As we are using variables at 10 years intervals, problems of non stationarity of the series and possible spurious results are ruled out.
In the cross-section estimation we used GDP per capita to compare provinces having different dimension. In the dynamic estimation we shift to GDP we analyse changes and thus, since there’s no dimensional bias, we address directly the impact of overall economic growth. However, estimations using the per capita GDP return very similar results (available upon request).
Simultaneous causality can be better addressed by using an IV type estimator, but unfortunately, due to the peculiarity of the dataset (Italian provinces over 50 years) we could not find suitable instruments.
Since we do not assess causality at this stage the negative relation can be also due to the land endowment. Economic activities tend to locate where infrastructures are better developed. Hilly regions, for example, are likely to act as a barrier to economic growth due to the difficulty to develop transport links to markets.
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Esposito, P., Patriarca, F., Perini, L. et al. Land degradation, economic growth and structural change: evidences from Italy. Environ Dev Sustain 18, 431–448 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-015-9655-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-015-9655-9