Modeling Potential Water Resource Impacts of Mediterranean Tourism in a Changing Climate
- 443 Downloads
A scenario analysis was conducted to explore the impacts of climate and land-water management changes using an 89-km2 catchment near the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) located in southwestern Messenia, Greece, as a regionally representative case study. Our objective was to quantify potential impacts on groundwater storage and streamflow at the catchment scale. To achieve this, the simple Thornthwaite-Mather-based hydrological model was calibrated to 3 years of available data (2009–2011) and used to explore the following: (1) impacts of climate change (specifically, IPCC’s A2 and B2 projections for 2071–2100), (2) impacts of land-water management changes associated with expansion of tourism activities (specifically, the addition of irrigated golf courses), and (3) the combined impact of both climate and land-water management changes. The model results indicated potential vulnerability of water resources to future climate change which could, for example, reduce streamflow between 33 and 97 % of current annual flows depending on the scenario considered. Future land-water management change could also reduce streamflow (under the current climate) by 3 or 5 % depending on if the change involves export of water outside the catchment. Clearly, this would be exacerbated under coupled climate changes which highlights the importance of environmental monitoring (part of the mission of the NEO) to inform management and planning in this and other Mediterranean regions.
KeywordsClimate change Land-water management Mediterranean Water resources Tourism Hydrological modeling
The work has (in part) been carried out within the framework of the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO), Messinia, Greece, a cooperation between Stockholm University, the Academy of Athens, and TEMES S.A. NEO is dedicated to research and education on the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region. Financial support from the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) Project Number SWE-2011-066 is acknowledged. Travel costs were in part financed by Stockholm University’s Strategic International Exchange Fund. Josephine Archibald is thanked for assistance at various stages of this study. Finally, Dr. Georgia Destouni is thanked for comments on an early version of this work that have helped improve this study.
- 1.Alcamo, J., Moreno, J.M. Nováky, B., Bindi, M., Corobov, R. Devoy, R., Giannakopoulos, C., Martin, E. Olesen, J.E. and Shvidenko, A. (2007). Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden P.J. and Hanson, C.E., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580.Google Scholar
- 3.Beven, K. J. (2001). Rainfall-runoff modeling: the primer. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons. 360 pp.Google Scholar
- 7.D’Andria, R. and Morelli, G. (2002). Irrigation regime affects yield and oil quality of olive trees. Proc. 4th IS on Olive Growing. Eds. C. Vitagliano& G.P. Martelli. Acta Horticulturae, 586, 273-276.Google Scholar
- 9.Dunne, T., & Leopold, L. B. (1978). Water in environmental planning (pp. 1–818). New York: W H Freeman and Company.Google Scholar
- 10.EGA (2013). European Golf Association. Statistics. http://www.ega-golf.ch/050000/050200.asp (visited 2013-04-04).
- 11.Ekstedt, K. (2013). Local water resource assessment in Messinia, Greece. MSc Thesis, Stockholm Sweden: Stockholm University.Google Scholar
- 12.ESDAC (2012). European Soil Data Centre. http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/wrb/ (visited 2012-10-19)
- 13.FAO (2012). FAO: water development and management unit, crop water information: olive. http://www.fao.org/nr/ water/cropinfo_olive.html (visited 2012-09-24)
- 19.Giorgi, F., Whetton, P. W., Jones, R. G., Christensen, J. H., Mearns, L. O., Hewitson, B., von Storch, H., Francisco, R., & Jack, C. (2001). Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(17), 3317–3320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 21.Hayhoe, K. A. (2010). A standardized framework for evaluating the skill of regional climate downscaling techniques. PhD Dissertation, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Google Scholar
- 24.Iniesta, F., Testi, L., Orgaz, F., and Villalobos, F.J. (2009). The effects of regulated and continuous deficit irrigation on the water use, growth and yield of olive trees, European Journal of Agronomy, 30, 258-265.Google Scholar
- 29.Klein, J. (2013). Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective. Using a hydrolgoical model to explore the combined impacts of climate and land-water management changes. MSc Thesis, Stockholm Sweden: Stockholm University.Google Scholar
- 30.KNMI (2012). The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, monthly temperature and precipitation in Kalamata, http://climexp.knmi.nl (visited 2012-12-17)
- 31.Koutsouris, A.J., J. Jarsjö, G. Destouni, and S.W. Lyon (2010). Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data in the Lake Victoria region, Kenya. Environmental Research Letters, 5, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034005.
- 32.Lazarova, V., Levine, B., Sack, J., Cirelli, G., Jeffrey, P., Muntau, H., Salgot, M., & Brissaud, F. (2001). Role of water reuse for enhancing integrated water management in Europe and Mediterranean countries. Water Science and Technology, 43(10), 25–33.Google Scholar
- 34.Lundholm, G., Borgström, I. and Kleman, J. (2010). Land cover of Messinia, Greece. Stockholm University, Deptartment of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. Navarino Environmental Observatory. 2010.Google Scholar
- 35.Lyon, S. W., Walter, M. T., Jantze, E. J., & Archibald, J. A. (2013). Training hydrologists to be ecohydrologists: a ‘how-you-can-do-it’ example leveraging an active learning environment for studying plant-water interaction. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 269–279. doi: 10.5194/hess-17-269-2013.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 37.Markwick, M. C. (2000). Case Study golf tourism development, stakeholders, differing discourses and alternative agendas: the case of Malta. Tourism Management, 21, 515–524.Google Scholar
- 39.Milano, M. (2010). The foreseeable impacts of climate change on the water resources of four major Mediterranean catchment basins. Sophia Antipolis: Plan Bleu Regional Activity Centre.Google Scholar
- 41.Pandey, D. N., Gupta, A. K., & Anderson, D. M. (2003). Rainwater harvesting as an adaptation to climate change. Current Science, 85(1), 46–59.Google Scholar
- 43.Pearce, F. (1993). How green is your golf? New Scientist, 139(1892), 30–35.Google Scholar
- 45.Poff, N.L, Brinson M.M, and Day, J.W. (2002). Aquatic ecosystems and global climate change: potential impacts on inland freshwater and coastal wetland ecosystems in the United States. Pew Center for Global Change 1-44.Google Scholar
- 55.TEMES (2013). Sustainability, Environment, Golf and eco values.http://www.costanavarino.com/ (visited 2013-03-21)