The Value of Better Information on Technology R&D Programs in Response to Climate Change
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Expert elicitations are a promising method for determining how R&D investments are likely to have an impact on technological advance in climate change energy technologies. But, expert elicitations are time consuming and resource intensive. Thus, we investigate the value of the information gained in expert elicitations. More specifically, given baseline elicitations from one study, we estimate the expected value of better information (EVBI) from revisiting and improving these assessments. We find that the EVBI is very large in comparison with the cost of performing expert elicitations. We also find that EVBI is higher on technologies with larger budgets and with net values that are not too high or too low.
KeywordsValue of information Technology R&D Uncertainty Environmental policy
The research leading to these results was completed while Baker was visiting the Precourt Energy Efficiency Center at Stanford University and was partially supported by NSF under award number SES-0745161 and by the European Research Council under the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement n° 240895—Project ICARUS “Innovation for Climate Change Mitigation: a Study of energy R&D, its Uncertain Effectiveness and Spillovers”. We thank Haewon McJeon for providing the GCAM results.
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