Abstract
This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable resource illustrates the general results of the paper.
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Notes
Similarly, the usual information value is basically related to the difference between E w (min u g(u,w)) and min u E w (g(u,w)) in a probabilistic framework. We recover here the same kind of difference through a minimax inequality
$$\sup_{w\in {\mathbb W}}\inf_{u\in {\mathbb U}}g(u,w)< \inf_{u\in {\mathbb U}}\sup_{w\in {\mathbb W}}g(u,w).$$Conditions for the equality to hold true can be found in [2] for instance.
Typically, we might assume that R + > 1 and R − < 1, illustrating the fact that, for uncertain population dynamics, both decreases and increases of abundance can occur.
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Doyen, L., Pereau, JC. The Precautionary Principle as a Robust Cost-Effectiveness Problem. Environ Model Assess 14, 127–133 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-008-9153-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-008-9153-7