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Transfer learning in effort estimation

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When projects lack sufficient local data to make predictions, they try to transfer information from other projects. How can we best support this process? In the field of software engineering, transfer learning has been shown to be effective for defect prediction. This paper checks whether it is possible to build transfer learners for software effort estimation. We use data on 154 projects from 2 sources to investigate transfer learning between different time intervals and 195 projects from 51 sources to provide evidence on the value of transfer learning for traditional cross-company learning problems. We find that the same transfer learning method can be useful for transfer effort estimation results for the cross-company learning problem and the cross-time learning problem. It is misguided to think that: (1) Old data of an organization is irrelevant to current context or (2) data of another organization cannot be used for local solutions. Transfer learning is a promising research direction that transfers relevant cross data between time intervals and domains.

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  1. In the literature, this is known as a negative transfer effect (Pan and Yang 2010) where transfer learning actually makes matters worse.

  2. Terminology note: Kitchenham et al. called such transfers “cross-company” learning.

  3. Examples of delphi localizations come from Boehm (1981) and Petersen and Wohlin (2009). Boehm divided software projects into one of the “embedded”, “semi-detached” or “organic” projects and offered different COCOMO-I effort models for each. Petersen & Wohlin offer a rich set of dimensions for contextualizing projects (processes, product, organization, etc).



  6. Note that the literature contains numerous synonyms for data set shift including “concept shift” or “concept drift”, “changes of classification”, “changing environments”, “contrast mining in classification learning”,“fracture points” and “fractures between data”. We will use the term as defined in the above text.


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The work was partially funded by NSF CCF grant, award number 1302169, and the Qatar/West Virginia University research grant NPRP 09-12-5-2-470.

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Correspondence to Ekrem Kocaguneli.

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Communicated by: Martin Shepperd

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Kocaguneli, E., Menzies, T. & Mendes, E. Transfer learning in effort estimation. Empir Software Eng 20, 813–843 (2015).

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