, Volume 41, Issue 1, pp 69–81 | Cite as

Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations

Original Paper


This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. Both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level are considered. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation uncertainty is closely related to output growth uncertainty. Individual forecasters seem to behave according to an uncertainty-augmented hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. We also find evidence that inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by lowering output growth, boosting inflation and reducing the price-sensitiveness of aggregate supply.


Forecasting Survey data Expectations Phillips curve 

JEL Classification

C53 E37 E31 



Antti Komonen, Sami Oinonen and Tarja Yrjölä have kindly derived the data. Useful comments from two anonymous referees are also acknowledged.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Bank of FinlandHelsinkiFinland
  2. 2.University of TurkuTurkuFinland

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