Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Statistical power to detect change in a mangrove shoreline fish community adjacent to a nuclear power plant

  • Published:
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

An expansion is underway of a nuclear power plant on the shoreline of Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA. While the precise effects of its construction and operation are unknown, impacts on surrounding marine habitats and biota are considered by experts to be likely. The objective of the present study was to determine the adequacy of an ongoing monitoring survey of fish communities associated with mangrove habitats directly adjacent to the power plant to detect fish community changes, should they occur, at three spatial scales. Using seasonally resolved data recorded during 532 fish surveys over an 8-year period, power analyses were performed for four mangrove fish metrics (fish diversity, fish density, and the occurrence of two ecologically important fish species: gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and goldspotted killifish (Floridichthys carpio). Results indicated that the monitoring program at current sampling intensity allows for detection of <33 % changes in fish density and diversity metrics in both the wet and the dry season in the two larger study areas. Sampling effort was found to be insufficient in either season to detect changes at this level (<33 %) in species-specific occurrence metrics for the two fish species examined. The option of supplementing ongoing, biological monitoring programs for improved, focused change detection deserves consideration from both ecological and cost-benefit perspectives.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alvarez, M., Franco, A., Pérez-Domínguez, R., & Elliott, M. (2013). Sensitivity analysis to explore responsiveness and dynamic range of multi-metric fish-based indices for assessing the ecological status of estuaries and lagoons. Hydrobiologia, 704, 15. doi:10.1007/s10750-012-1314-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Angermeier, P., & Smogor, R. (1995). Estimating number of species and relative abundances in stream-fish communities: effects of sampling effort and discontinuous spatial distribution. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 52, 13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bachman, P. M., & Rand, G. M. (2008). Effects of salinity on native estuarine fish species in South Florida. Ecotoxicology, 17, 6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bader, R. G., & Roessler, M. A. (1971). An ecological study of south Biscayne Bay and Card Sound, Florida. Progress report to the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AT(40-1)-3801-3) and Florida Power and Light Company (Vol. ML 71066). Miami: University of Miami.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bender, E. A., Case, T. J., & Gilpin, M. E. (1984). Perturbation experiments in community ecology: theory and practice. Ecology, 65, 12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Browder, J. A., & Moore, D. (1981). A new approach to determining the quantitative relationship between fishery production and the flow of fresh water to estuaries. Paper presented at the National symposium on freshwater inflow to estuaries, Washington

  • Browder, J. A., & Ogden, J. C. (1999). The natural south Florida ecosystem predrainage ecology. Urban Ecosystems, 3, 32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brujis, M. C. M., & Jenner, H. A. (2012). Cooling water system design in relation to fouling pressure. In S. Rajagopal, H. A. Jenner, & V. P. Venugopalan (Eds.), Operational and environmental consequences of large industrial cooling water systems. London: Dordrecht Heidelberg.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carignan, V., & Villard, M. (2002). Selecting indicator species to monitor ecological integrity: a review. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 78(1), 16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caughlan, L., & Oakley, K. L. (2001). Cost considerations for long-term ecological monitoring. Ecological Indicators, 1, 11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CERP (2005). Central and Southern Florida Project. Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan 2005 Report to Congress. (pp. 114): U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

  • CERP (2010). Central and Southern Florida Project. Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan 2005 Report to Congress. (pp. 47): U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

  • Champley, S., Ekstrom, C., Dalgaard, P., Gill, J., & De Rosario, H. (2015). Basic functions for power analysis: package “pwr” Version 1.1-2. (R package). <http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pwr/pwr.pdf>

  • Chen, X., Gao, H., Yao, X., Fang, H., Chen, Z., & Xu, Z. (2010). Ecosystem-based assessment indices of restoration for Daya Bay near a nuclear power plant in South China. Environmental Science and Technology, 44, 6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark, J., & Brownell, W. (1973). Electric power plants in the coastal zone: environmental issues. Special Publication (Vol. No. 7): American Littoral Society.

  • Dolan, T. E. (2012). A case study of Turkey point nuclear generating station: perception and power in environmental assessment. Miami: University of Miami.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dzul, M. C., Dixon, P. M., Quist, M. C., Dinsmore, S. J., Bower, M. R., Wilson, K. P., & Bailey Gaines, D. (2012). Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design: improving monitoring of larval Devils Hole pupfish. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. doi:10.1007/s10661-012-2562-8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ecological Associates Inc. (2009). Species and relative abundances of fish and shellfish in the vicinity of Turkey Point Plant based on recent collections (p. 27). Jensen Beach: Ecological Associates Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fairweather, P. G. (1991). Statistical power and design requirements for environmental monitoring. Australian Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 42, 12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faunce, C. H., & Serafy, J. E. (2006). Mangroves as fish habitat: 50 years of field studies. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 318, 18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faunce, C. H., & Serafy, J. E. (2007). Nearshore habitat use by gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and bluestriped grunt (Haemulon sciurus): environmental gradients and ontogenetic shifts. Bulletin of Marine Science, 80(3), 17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faunce, C. H., & Serafy, J. E. (2008). Growth and secondary production of an eventual reef fish during mangrove residency. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 79, 7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faunce, C. H., Serafy, J. E., & Lorenz, J. J. (2004). Density-habitat relationships of mangrove creek fishes within the southeastern saline Everglades (USA), with reference to managed freshwater releases. Wetlands Ecology and Management, 12, 17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Field, S. A., Tyre, A. J., Jonzén, N., Rhodes, J. R., & Possingham, H. (2004). Minimizing the cost of environmental management decisions by optimizing statistical thresholds. Ecology Letters, 7, 669–675.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Florida Power and Light Company (2009). Site certification application, Turkey Point Units 6 & 7. June 2009.

  • Florida Power and Light Company Turkey Point Plant, Units 6 & 7 Combined Operating License Application. Part 3: Environmental Report. Rev. 2. Accessed: April, 2011 < http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/turkey-point.html>

  • Gamito, R., Pasquad, S., Courrat, A., Drouineau, H., Fonesca, V. F., Gonçalves, C. I., Wouters, N., Costa, J. L., Lepage, M., Costa, M. J., & Cabral, H. N. (2012). Influence of sampling effort on metrics of fish-based indices for the assessment of estuarine ecological quality. Ecological Indicators, 23, 9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerrodette, T. (1987). A power analysis for detecting trends. Ecology, 68, 8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glasby, T. M., & Underwood, A. J. (1996). Sampling to differentiate between pulse and press perturbations. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 42, 11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green, R. H. (1979). Sampling design and statistical methods for environmental biologists. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, D. P. J., Trexler, J. C., Lorenz, J. J., McIvor, C. C., & Phillipi, T. (2006). Spatial patterns of fish communities along two estuarine gradients in southern Florida. Hydrobiologia, 569, 12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Growns, I., Astles, K., & Gehrke, P. (2006). Multiscale spatial and small-scale temporal variation in the composition of riverine fish communities. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 114, 19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hammerschlag, N., Ovando, D., & Serafy, J. E. (2010). Seasonal diet and feeding habits of juvenile fishes foraging along a subtropical marine ecotone. Aquatic Biology, 9, 11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrigan, P., Zieman, J. C., & Macko, S. A. (1989). The base of nutritional support for the gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus): an evaluation based on a combined stomach content and stable isotope analysis. Bulletin of Marine Science, 44, 12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holt, K. R., Peterman, R. M., & Cox, S. P. (2011). Trade-offs between monitoring objectives and monitoring effort when classifying regional conservation status of Pacific salmon (Oncorhyncus spp.) populations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 68, 17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keough, M. J., & Quinn, G. P. (1991). Causality and the choice of measurements for detecting human impacts in marine environments. Australian Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 42, 15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni, V., Naidu, V., & Jagtap, T. (2011). Marine ecological habitat: a case study on projected thermal power plant around Dharamtar Creek, India. Journal of Environmental Biology, 32, 6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lankford, T. E., & Targett, T. E. (1994). Suitability of estuarine nursery zones for juvenile weakfish (Cynoscion regalis): effects of temperature and salinity on feeding, growth and survival. Marine Biology, 119, 9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laws, E. A. (2000). Aquatic pollution: an introductory text (3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Legg, C. J., & Nagy, L. (2006). Why most conservation monitoring is, but need not be, a waste of time. Journal of Environmental Management, 78, 5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ley, J. A., McIvor, C. C., & Montague, C. L. (1999). Fishes in mangrove prop-root habitats of northeastern Florida Bay: distinct assemblages across an estuarine gradient. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 48, 22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Light, S. S., & Dineen, J. W. (1994). Water control in the Everglades: a historical perspective. In S. M. Davis & J. C. Ogden (Eds.), Everglades: the ecosystem and its restoration (pp. 117–146). Boca Raton: St Lucie Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin, Y. J., Fruehaur, G. L., & Desai, M. (1994). An evaluation of seasonal impacts of a mechanical draft cooling tower (pp. 1098–1101). Bechtel Power Corporation.

  • Lorenz, J. J. (1999). The response of fishes to physiochemical changes in the mangroves of Northeast Florida Bay. Estuaries, 22, 17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, J. J., & Serafy, J. E. (2006). Subtropical wetland fish assemblages and changing salinity regimes: implications for Everglades restoration. Hydrobiologia, 569, 21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo, J., Serafy, J. E., Sponaugle, S., Teare, P. B., & Kieckbusch, D. (2009). Movement of gray snapper Lutjanus griseus among subtropical seagrass, mangrove and coral reef habitats. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 380, 14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCaughran, D. A. (1977). The quality of inferences concerning the effects of nuclear power plants on the environment. In W. van Winkle (Ed.), Proceedings of the conference on assessing the effects of power plant-induced mortality on fish populations (p. 13). NY: Pergamon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • McManus, L. C., Yurek, S., Teare, P. B., Dolan, T. E., & Serafy, J. E. (2014). Killifish habitat suitability as a measure of coastal restoration performance: integrating field data, behavioral trials and simulation. Ecological Indicators Special Issue: Coastal Florida EBM Tools. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.03.006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miner, R. M., & Warrick, J. W. (1974). Environmental effects of cooling systems alternatives at inland and coastal sites. Nuclear Technology, 4(25), 10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nagelkerke, L. A., & Van Densen, W. L. T. (2007). Serial correlation and inter-annual variability in relation to statistical power of monitoring schemes to detect trends in fish populations. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 125, 9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nugent, R. S. (1970). The effects of thermal effluent on some of the macrofauna of a subtropical estuary. Coral Gables: University of Miami.

    Google Scholar 

  • Odum, W. E. (1971). Pathways of energy flow in a south Florida estuary (Sea Grant Technical Bulletin, p. 162). Miami: FL University of Miami.

    Google Scholar 

  • Osenberg, C. W., Schmitt, R. J., Holbrook, S. J., Khalili, E. A., & Russell, F. (1994). Detection of environmental impacts: natural variability, effect size and power analysis. Ecological Applications, 4(1), 14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pasquad, S., Courrat, A., Fonesca, V. F., Gamito, R., Gonçalves, C. I., Lobry, J., Lepage, M., Costa, M. J., & Cabral, H. (2013). Strength and time lag of relationships between human pressures and fish-based metrics used to assess the ecological quality of estuarine systems. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 134, 8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peterman, R. M. (1990). Statistical power analysis can improve fisheries research and management. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 47, 14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, M. S., & Meador, M. R. (1994). Effects of salinity on freshwater fishes in coastal plain drainages in the southeastern U.S. Reviews in Fisheries Science, 2(2), 26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pikitch, E. K., Rountos, K. J., Essington, T. E., Santora, C., Pauly, D., Watson, R., Sumaila, U. R., Boersma, P. D., Boyd, I. L., Conover, D. L., Cury, P., Heppell, S. S., Houde, E. D., Mangel, M., Plagányi, E., Sainsbury, K., Steneck, R. S., Geers, T. M., Gownaris, N., & Munch, S. B. (2014). Fish and Fisheries, 15, 21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quist, M. C., Gerow, K. G., Bower, M. R., & Hubert, W. A. (2006). Random versus fixed-site sampling when monitoring relative abundance of fishes in headwater streams of the upper Colorado River basin. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 26, 8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team (2013). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. <http://www.R-project.org/.>

  • Ramo, C., & Busto, B. (1993). Resource use by herons in a Yucatan wetland during the breeding season. The Wilson Bulletin, 105, 13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reid, S. M., & Mandrak, N. E. (2009). Effect of diel period and season on seining effort required to detect changes in Lake Erie beach fish assemblages. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 153, 10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds, J. H., Thompson, W. L., & Russell, B. (2011). Planning for success: identifying effective and efficient survey designs for monitoring. Biological Conservation, 144(5), 6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SAFMC (2009). Fishery ecosystem plan of the South Atlantic Region. South Atlantic Fishery Management Council. Available on-line: www.safmc.net/ecosystem/Home/EcosystemHome/tabid/435/Default.aspx

  • Sandin, L., & Johnson, R. K. (2000). The statistical power of selected indicator metrics using macroinvertebrates for assessing acidification and eutrophication of running waters. Hydrobiologia, 422/423, 10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt, T. W. (1989). Food habits, length-weight relationship and condition factor of young Great Barracuda, Sphyraena barracuda (Waldbaum), from Florida Bay, Everglades National Park, Florida. Bulletin of Marine Science, 44, 7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmitt, E., Sluka, R., & Sullivan-Sealey, K. (2002). Evaluating the use of roving diver and transect surveys to assess the coral reef fish assemblages off southeastern Hispaniola. Coral Reefs, 21, 7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Serafy, J. E., Lindeman, K. C., Hopkins, T. E., & Ault, J. E. (1997). Effects of freshwater canal discharge on fish assemblages in a subtropical bay: field and laboratory observations. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 160, 11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serafy, J. E., Faunce, C. H., & Lorenz, J. J. (2003). Mangrove shoreline fishes of Biscayne Bay, Florida. Bulletin of Marine Science, 72(1), 19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Serafy, J. E., Luo, J., Valle, M., Faunce, C. H., Teare, B., D'Alessandro, E., & Peyer, C. (2005). Shoreline fish community visual assessment: first cumulative report. Shoreline fish community visual assessment (p. 49). Miami: NOAA/NMFS/SEFSC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Serafy, J. E., Valle, M., Faunce, C. H., & Luo, J. (2007). Species specific patterns of fish abundance and size along a subtropical mangrove shoreline: an application of the delta approach. Bulletin of Marine Science, 80, 15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Serafy, J. E., Johnson, D. A., & Teare, B. (2009). Shoreline fish community visual assessment: fifth cumulative report. CERP Monitoring and Assessment Plan Component. Miami: CERP Monitoring and Assessment Plan Component.

    Google Scholar 

  • Serrano, X. M., Grosell, M., & Serafy, J. E. (2010). Salinity selection and preference of the gray snapper Lutjanus griseus: field and laboratory observations. Journal of Fish Biology, 76, 16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrecker, G. O., WIlliams, S. L., & Shofner, F. M. (1975). Atmospheric dispersion of cooling tower blow down. In Environmental effects of cooling systems at nuclear power plants. 26–30 August, 1974. Oslo, Norway.

  • Smith, E. P., Orvos, D. R., & Cairns, J., Jr. (1993). Impact assessment using the before-after-control-impact (BACI) model: concerns and comments. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 50, 10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stark, W. E., II. (1970). Biology of the gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus (Linnaeus), in the Florida Keys. In W. E. Stark II & R. E. Schroeder (Eds.), Investigations on the gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus (pp. 11–150). Coral Gables: University of Miami Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • State of Florida Department of Environmental Protection (2014). Conditions of certification. Florida Power & Light Company Turkey Point Plant Units 6 & 7. May 19, 2014. 193pp.

  • Stewart-Oaten, A., & Bence, J. R. (2001). Temporal and spatial variation in environmental impact assessment. Ecological Monographs, 71, 34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stewart-Oaten, A., Murdoch, W. M., & Parker, K. R. (1986). Environmental impact assessment: 'pseudoreplication' in time? Ecology, 67, 11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Talbot, J. J. (1979). A review of potential biological impacts of cooling tower salt drift. Atmospheric Environment, 13, 10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thayer, G. W., Colby, D. R., & Hettler, W. F., II. (1987). Utilization of the red mangrove prop root habitat by fishes in south Florida. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 35, 13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thorhaug, A., & Roessler, M. A. (1977). Seagrass community dynamics in a subtropical estuarine lagoon. Aquaculture, 12, 24.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thorhaug, A., Roessler, M. A., Bach, S. D., Hixon, R., Brook, I. M., & Josselyn, M. N. (1979). Biological effects of power-plant thermal effluents in Card Sound, Florida. Environmental Conservation, 6(2), 10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (2015). Draft environmental impact statement for combined licenses for Turkey Point Nuclear Plan Units 6 and 7, Draft Report for comment. Available on-line at: http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr2176/v1/

  • Underwood, A. J., & Chapman, M. G. (2003). Power, precaution, type II error and sampling design in assessment of environmental impacts. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 296, 22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Wynsberge, S., Gilbert, A., Guillemot, N., Payri, C., & Andréfoët, S. (2013). Alert thresholds for monitoring environmental variables: a new approach applied to seagrass beds diversity in New Caledonia. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 77, 7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Villéger, S., Miranda, J. R., Hernandez, D. F., & Mouillot, D. (2012). Low functional β-diversity despite high taxonomic β-diversity among tropical estuarine fish communities. Plos One, 7(7), 10. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040679.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was conducted under Special Activity License 07SR-1015. Financial support was provided through Restoration Coordination and Verification funds from the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan provided to J. Serafy. We appreciate the constructive feedback provided by anonymous reviewers. P.B. Teare predominantly conducted field sampling, with support from numerous student volunteers for whom we have deep gratitude. This study is dedicated to the memory of M. South.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 421-4000, USA

    T. E. Dolan & J. E. Serafy

  2. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA

    T. E. Dolan

  3. Office of Science and Technology, National Marine Fisheries Service, 1315 East-west Highway, Silver Spring, MD, 33149, USA

    P. D. Lynch

  4. Southeast Regional Office, National Marine Fisheries Service, 400 N Congress Ave., Suite 110, West Palm Beach, FL, 33401, USA

    J. L. Karazsia

  5. Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, FL, 33149, USA

    J. E. Serafy

Authors
  1. T. E. Dolan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. P. D. Lynch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. J. L. Karazsia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. J. E. Serafy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to T. E. Dolan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Dolan, T.E., Lynch, P.D., Karazsia, J.L. et al. Statistical power to detect change in a mangrove shoreline fish community adjacent to a nuclear power plant. Environ Monit Assess 188, 184 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-016-5177-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-016-5177-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation