Misconstrued risks from citrus black spot in colder climates: a response to Er et al. 2013
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Species niche models play an important role in pest risk assessments, providing estimates of areas of suitability for establishment, persistence and impact, and sometimes the likely costs of biological invasions (FAO 2006). As has been demonstrated in the case of CBS, important and valuable phytosanitary decisions affecting international trade can hinge on pest risk assessments and their underlying niche models tend to come under close scrutiny. In 2005, Paul et al. published a CLIMEX model of CBS. CBS is present in South Africa, which exports citrus to Europe. Because European authorities are keen to protect European citrus trees from perceived invasion threats from these imported citrus products, the European Food Safety Agency critiqued the CBS model of Paul et al. (2005) (EFSA 2008). In response to EFSA (2008), and to better inform the assessment of the threat posed to European citrus production from CBS associated with imports of South African citrus fruits, Yonow et al. (2013)...
KeywordsStress Index Stress Parameter Climatic Suitability Summer Model Citrus Black Spot
Tania Yonow: Independent contractor. Contracted in 2009 by the Citrus Research Institute in South Africa to produce the CLIMEX analysis presented in Yonow et al. (2013). Currently contracted to HarvestChoice (http://harvestchoice.org/) and InSTePP (http://www.instepp.umn.edu/) at the University of Minnesota to produce a series of CLIMEX analyses on agricultural and livestock pests in Africa. Darren Kriticos: funded by CSIRO to develop improved ecological modelling methods for the study of biosecurity and climate change issues.
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