European Journal of Epidemiology

, Volume 31, Issue 1, pp 61–65 | Cite as

Low mean temperature rather than few sunshine hours are associated with an increased incidence of type 1 diabetes in children



The well-known north–south gradient and the seasonal variability in incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes indicate climatological factors to have an effect on the onset. Both sunshine hours and a low temperature may be responsible. In the present study we tried to disentangle these effects that tend to be strongly connected. Exposure data were sunshine hours and mean temperature respectively obtained from eleven meteorological stations in Sweden which were linked to incidence data from geographically matched areas. Incident cases during 1983–2008 were retrieved from the population based Swedish childhood diabetes register. We used generalized additive models to analyze the incidence as a function of mean temperature and hours of sun adjusted for the time trend, age and sex. In our data set the correlation between sun hours and temperature was weak (r = 0.36) implying that it was possible to estimate the effect of these variables in a regression model. We fit a general additive model with a smoothing term for the time trend. In the model with sun hours we found no significant effect on T1 incidence (p = 0.17) whereas the model with temperature as predictor was significant (p = 0.05) when adjusting for the time trend, sex and age. Adding sun hours in the model where mean temperature was already present did not change the effect of temperature. There is an association with incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and low mean temperature independent of a possible effect of sunshine hours after adjustment for age, sex and time trend. The findings may mirror the cold effect on insulin resistance and accords with the hypothesis that overload of an already ongoing beta cell destruction may accelerate disease onset.


Climate Incidence Risk factors Time trend adjustment Type 1 diabetes mellitus 



We wish to thank the members of the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Study Group for valuable comments and discussion. Also, we are grateful to John Ekblom, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The study was supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council (Project Number 07531) and Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Project number P11-0814:1).

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Statistics, USBEUmeå UniversityUmeåSweden
  2. 2.Department of Clinical Sciences, PediatricsUmeå UniversityUmeåSweden

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