Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Sensitivity of atmospheric dispersion simulations by HYSPLIT to the meteorological predictions from a meso-scale model

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Environmental Fluid Mechanics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Mesoscale transport and dispersion of air pollutants from a few major point sources in the Mississippi Gulf coastal region is calculated using a coupled modeling system consisting of the atmospheric dynamical model WRF and the lagrangian particle model HYSPLIT. The sensitivity of the dispersion model results to the meteorological fields is studied by conducting an ensemble of simulations using the WRF model for the same dispersion case. Several parameterization schemes for the physical processes of boundary layer turbulence and land surface temperature/moisture prediction in WRF are used in various combinations to produce different meteorological members which are then used for dispersion simulation. The uncertainty in the simulated concentration probabilities to the meteorological model configurations and the ensemble mean are presented. The parameters used for determining the uncertainties include the wind fields, temperature, area of concentration and the levels of concentration. The results indicate that dispersion model results are influenced by the choices made in respect of the planetary boundary layer and land surface schemes in the mesoscale model to produce the meteorological forecast thereby leading to certain amount of uncertainty in the resultant concentrations. Results show that the specific choices made about the atmospheric model configuration can significantly after the simulated concentrations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Berg LK, Zhong S (2005) Sensitivity of MM5-simulated boundary layer characteristics to turbulence parameterizations. J Appl Meteorol 44(9): 1467–1483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model description and implementation. Mon Weather Rev 129: 569–585 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  3. Dabberdt WF, Miller E (2000) Uncertainly, ensembles and air quality dispersion modeling: application and challenges. Atmos Environ 34: 4667–4673

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Delle Monache L, Stull RB (2003) An ensemble air-quality forecast over Europe during an ozone episode. Atmos Environ 37: 3469–3474. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(03)00475-8

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Draxler RR (2002) Verification of an ensemble dispersion calculation. J Appl Meteorol 42: 308–317 doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0308:EOAEDC>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Draxler RR (2003) Evaluation of an ensemble dispersion calculation. J Appl Meteorol 42: 308–317 doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0308:EOAEDC>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Draxler RR, Hess GD (1997) Description of the HYSPLIT_4 modeling system. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL ARL-224

  8. Draxler RR, Hess GD (1998) An overview of the Hysplit_4 modeling system for trajectories, dispersion and deposition. Aust Meteorol Mag 47: 295–308

    Google Scholar 

  9. Dudhia J (1989) Numerical study of convection observed during winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J Atmos Sci 46: 3077–3107 doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Dudhia J (1996) A multi-layer soil temperature model for MM5. Preprint from the sixth PSU/NCAR mesoscale model users’ workshop

  11. Galmarini S, Bianconi R, Klug W, Mikkelsen T, Addis R, Astrup P, Astrup P, Baklanov A, Bartniki J, Bartzis JC, Bellasio R, Bompay F, Buckley R, Bouzom M, Champion H, D’Amours R, Davakis E, Eleveld H, Geertsema GT, Glaab H, Kollax M, Ilvonen M, Manning A, Pechinger U, Persson C, Polreich E, Potemski S, Prodanova M, Saltbones J, Slaper H, Sofiev MA, Syrakov D, Sorensen JH, AuweraL Van der, Valkama I, Zelazny R et al (2004) Ensemble dispersion forecasting—part I: concept, approach and indicators. Atmos Environ 38: 4607–4617. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Han Z, Ueda H, An J (2008) Evaluation and intercomparison of meteorological predictions by five MM5-PBL parameterizations in combination with three land-surface models. Atmos Environ 42: 233–249. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.09.053

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Hong SY, Pan HL (1996) Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium range forecast model. Mon Weather Rev 124: 2322–2339 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2322:NBLVDI>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Hong SY, Dudhia J, Chen SH (2004) A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 132: 103–120 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Hong SY, Noh Y, Dudhia J (2006) A new vertical diffusion package with explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon Weather Rev 134: 2318–2341. doi:10.1175/MWR3199.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Janzic ZI (1990) The step-mountain coordinate: physical package. Mon Weather Rev 118: 1429–1443 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1429:TSMCPP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Janjic ZI (1996) The surface layer in the NCEP Eta model. In: Eleventh conference on numerical weather prediction, Norfolk, VA, 19–13 August; Amer Met Soc, Boston, MA, pp 354–355

  18. Janjic ZI (2002) Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP meso model, NCEP Office Note, No. 437, 61 pp

  19. Kain JS, Fritsch JM (1990) A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. J Atmos Sci 47: 2784–2802 doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Kain JS, Fritsch JM (1993) Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: the Kain-Fritcsh scheme In: In Emanuel KA, Raymond DJ (eds) The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models. Amer Met Soc, 246 pp

  21. Krishnamurty TN, Kishtawal CM, LaRow TE, Bachiochi DR, Zhang Z, Willford CE et al (1999) Improved weather and seasonal climate forecast from multimodal superensemble. Science 285: 1548–1550. doi:10.1126/science.285.5433.1548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Maryon RH, Best MJ (1995) Estimating the emissions from a nuclear accident using observations of radioactivity with dispersion model products. Atmos Environ 29: 1853–1869. doi:10.1016/1352-2310(95)00042-W

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Mellor GL, Yamada T (1982) Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Rev Geophys Space Phys 20: 851–875

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SA (1997) Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J Geophys Res 102(D14): 16663–16682. doi:10.1029/97JD00237

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Mosca S, Graziani G, Klug W, Bellasio R, Bianconi R (1998) A statistical methodology for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models: an application to the ETEX exercise. Atmos Environ 32: 4307–4324. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00179-4

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Pielke RA, Uliasz M (1998) Use of meteorological models as input to regional and mesoscale air quality models—limitations and strengths. Atmos Environ 32: 1455–1466. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00140-4

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Pielke RA, McNider RT, Moran MD, Moon DA, Stocker RA, Walko RL et al (1991) Regional and mesoscale meteorological modeling as applied to air quality studies. In: Van Dop H, Steyn DG (eds) Air pollution modeling and its application, VII. Plenum Press, pp 259–290

  28. Seaman NL (2000) Meteorological modeling for air-quality assessments. Atmos Environ 34: 2231–2259. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00466-5

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Seaman NL, Stauffer DR, Lario AM (1995) A multiscale four-dimensional data assimilation system applied in the San Joaquin Valley during SARMAP Part I: modeling design and basic performance characteristics. J Appl Meteorol 34: 1739–1761 doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1995)034<1739:AMFDDA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Segal M, Pielke RA, Arritt RW, Moran MD, Yu CH, Henderson D (1986) Southern Florida air pollution climatology study and selected episodic impacts. Report prepared for Air Quality Division, National Park Service, Department of Interior, Denver, CO

  31. Sivillo J, Ahlquist JE, Toth Z (1997) An ensemble forecasting primer. Weather Forecast 12: 809–817 doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0809:AEFP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Skamarock WC, Klemp J, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Wang W, Powers JG (2005) A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-468+STR. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  33. Stauffer DR, Seaman NL (1990) Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model. Part I: experiments with synoptic-scale data. Mon Weather Rev 118: 1250–1277 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1250:UOFDDA>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  34. Stauffer DR, Seaman NL, Binkowski F (1991) Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model. Part II-Effects of data assimilation within the planetary boundary layer. Mon Weather Rev 119: 734–754 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<0734:UOFDDA>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  35. Straume AG (2001) A more extensive investigation of the use of ensemble forecasts for dispersion model evaluation. J Appl Meteorol 40: 425–445 doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0425:AMEIOT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Uliasz M (1993) The atmospheric mesoscale dispersion modeling system. J Appl Meteorol 32: 139–149 doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1993)032<0139:TAMDMS>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Wandishin MS, Mullen SL, Stensrud DJ, Brooks HE (2001) Evaluation of a short-range multimodel ensemble system. Mon Weather Rev 129: 729–747 doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0729:EOASRM>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Warner TT, Sheu R, Bowers J, Sykes RI, Dodd GC, Henn DS (2002) Ensemble simulations with coupled atmospheric dynamic and dispersion models: illustrating uncertainties in dosage simulations. J Appl Meteorol 41: 448–504 doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0488:ESWCAD>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Trent Lott Geospatial and Visualization Research Centre, Jackson State University, 1230 Raymond Road, Jackson, MS, 39217-204, USA

    Venkata Srinivas Challa, Jayakumar Indrcanti, Julius M. Baham, Chuck Patrick, Monika K. Rabarison, John H. Young, Robert Hughes, Shelton J. Swanier, Mark G. Hardy & Anjaneyulu Yerramilli

Authors
  1. Venkata Srinivas Challa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jayakumar Indrcanti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Julius M. Baham
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Chuck Patrick
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Monika K. Rabarison
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. John H. Young
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Robert Hughes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Shelton J. Swanier
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Mark G. Hardy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Anjaneyulu Yerramilli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Anjaneyulu Yerramilli.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Challa, V.S., Indrcanti, J., Baham, J.M. et al. Sensitivity of atmospheric dispersion simulations by HYSPLIT to the meteorological predictions from a meso-scale model. Environ Fluid Mech 8, 367–387 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-008-9098-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-008-9098-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation