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Non-homogeneous Poisson models with a change-point: an application to ozone peaks in Mexico city

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Abstract

In this paper, we use some non-homogeneous Poisson models in order to study the behavior of ozone measurements in Mexico City. We assume that the number of ozone peaks follows a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We consider four types of rate function for the Poisson process: power law, Musa–Okumoto, Goel–Okumoto, and a generalized Goel–Okumoto rate function. We also assume that a change-point may or may not be present. The analysis of the problem is performed by using a Bayesian approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The best model is chosen using the DIC criterion as well as graphical approach.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Medicina Social, FMRP—USP, Av. Bandeirantes, 3900, Ribeirão Preto, SP, 14049-900, Brazil

    Jorge Alberto Achcar

  2. Instituto de Matemáticas—UNAM, Area de la Investigación Científica, Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico, D.F., 04510, Mexico

    Eliane R. Rodrigues

  3. Departamento de Matemática, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa—IST, Lisboa, 1049-001, Portugal

    Carlos Daniel Paulino & Paulo Soares

Authors
  1. Jorge Alberto Achcar
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  2. Eliane R. Rodrigues
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  3. Carlos Daniel Paulino
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  4. Paulo Soares
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Correspondence to Eliane R. Rodrigues.

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Achcar, J.A., Rodrigues, E.R., Paulino, C.D. et al. Non-homogeneous Poisson models with a change-point: an application to ozone peaks in Mexico city. Environ Ecol Stat 17, 521–541 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-009-0114-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-009-0114-3

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