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Hand-foot-skin reaction of grade ≥ 2 within sixty days as the optimal clinical marker best help predict survival in sorafenib therapy for HCC

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Summary

Background & Aims Sorafenib-related adverse events have been reported as clinical surrogates for treatment response in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, no consensus has been reached regarding the definition of responders. We evaluated the predictive abilities of different definitions for sorafenib response based on treatment-emergent adverse events, aiming to identify the most discriminatory one as a clinical marker. Methods From January 2010 to December 2014, 435 consecutive HCC patients treated with sorafenib were enrolled. Considering the type, severity and timing of adverse events, twelve different categories of sorafenib response were defined. By comparing their discriminatory abilities for survival, an indicative criterion was defined, the prognostic value of which was evaluated by time-dependent multivariate analysis, validated in various subsets and confirmed by landmark analysis. Results Using concordance (C)-index analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, the development of a hand-foot-skin reaction ≥ grade 2 within 60 days of sorafenib initiation (2HFSR60) showed the highest discriminating value. Based on this criterion, 161 (37.0%) sorafenib responders achieved decreased risk of death by 47% (adjusted HR 0.53, 95%CI 0.43–0.67, P < 0.001) and likelihood of progression by 26% (adjusted HR 0.74, 95%CI 0.58–0.96, P = 0.020) compared with non-responders. Notably, 2HFSR60 remained an effective discriminator among most subgroups and had superior predictive ability to previous definitions, even according to the landmark analysis. Conclusions Our study demonstrated that 2HFSR60, with the best discriminatory ability compared to currently available definitions of sorafenib-related adverse events, could be the optimal clinical marker to identify sorafenib responders with decreased risk of death by half.

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Abbreviations

HCC:

Hepatocellular carcinoma

AASLD:

American Association for the Study of Liver Disease

EASL:

European Association for the Study of Liver disease

DAE:

Dermatologic adverse events

HR:

hazard ratio

TACE:

Transarterial chemoembolization

ECOG:

Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group

CT:

Computed tomography

MRI:

Magnetic resonance imaging

CTCAE:

Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events

OS:

Overall survival

TTP:

Time to progression

mRECIST:

Modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors

HFSR:

Hand-foot-skin reaction

DAE:

Dermatological adverse events (including rash or/and HFSR)

AE:

Any relevant adverse events (including HFSR, rash, diarrhea, alopecia and hypertension)

HFSR30:

Developing HFSR in 30 days after the initiation of sorafenib

2HFSR30:

Developing HFSR ≥ grade 2 in 30 days

DAE30:

developing DAE in 30 days

2DAE30:

Developing DAE ≥ grade 2 in 30 days

AE30:

Developing any AE in 30 days

2AE30:

Developing any relevant AE ≥ grade 2 in 30 days

HFSR60:

Developing HFSR in 60 days

2HFSR60:

Developing HFSR ≥ grade2 in 60 days

DAE60:

Developing DAE in 60 days

2DAE60:

Developing DAE ≥ grade2 in 60 days

AE60:

Developing any relevant AE in 60 days

2AE60:

Developing any relevant AE of ≥ grade 2 in 60 days

IQR:

Interquartile range

C-:

Concordance

ROC:

Receiver operating characteristic

PVTT:

Portal vein tumor thrombosis

EHS:

Extrahepatic spread

CI:

Confidence Interval

AUC:

Area under receiver operating characteristic curve

AFP:

α-fetoprotein

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (81172145 and 81420108020).

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Correspondence to Guohong Han.

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All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

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Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

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Wang, E., Xia, D., Bai, W. et al. Hand-foot-skin reaction of grade ≥ 2 within sixty days as the optimal clinical marker best help predict survival in sorafenib therapy for HCC. Invest New Drugs 37, 401–414 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10637-018-0640-7

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