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Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior

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Abstract

Individual responsive behavior to an influenza pandemic has significant impacts on the spread dynamics of this epidemic. Current influenza modeling efforts considering responsive behavior either oversimplify the process and may underestimate pandemic impacts, or make other problematic assumptions and are therefore constrained in utility. This study develops an agent-based model for pandemic simulation, and incorporates individual responsive behavior in the model based on public risk communication literature. The resultant model captures the stochastic nature of epidemic spread process, and constructs a realistic picture of individual reaction process and responsive behavior to pandemic situations. The model is then applied to simulate the spread dynamics of 2009 H1N1 influenza in a medium-size community in Arizona. Simulation results illustrate and compare the spread timeline and scale of this pandemic influenza, without and with the presence of pubic risk communication and individual responsive behavior. Sensitivity analysis sheds some lights on the influence of different communication strategies on pandemic impacts. Those findings contribute to effective pandemic planning and containment, particularly at the beginning of an outbreak.

Keywords

Influenza forecasting Responsive behavior Public risk communication Agent-based modeling 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant (71403284) and the Beijing Natural Science Foundation Grant (9162009). The author thanks the editor and three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Public Administration and PolicyRenmin University of ChinaBeijingChina

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