Autoregressive moving average model based relationship identification between exchange rate and export trade



This paper has analyzed the influence of RMB exchange rate change on our import and export trade for the relationship between our RMB exchange rate and foreign trade. Mechanism, model and empirical research methods of RMB exchange rate change for the competitive advantages of international trade have been set up based on time series autoregressive-moving average model. Empirical analysis results have shown that there is certain necessary connection between RMB appreciation and persistent surplus of China’s balance of trade. The persistent surplus of China’s balance of trade is presented as the persistent deficit of balance of trade in some countries. RMB appreciation can reduce surplus of balance of trade in China and then improve the persistent deficit of balance of trade in some countries.


RMB exchange rate International trade Competitive advantage Mechanism model Empirical research 


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© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Business School, International Economy and TradeBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina

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