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Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina

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The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model EC, removing trends and seasonality and accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluate the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997–2001 and 2011–2014. We use modeled temperature projections for the 2027–2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region-specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships is quite stable between periods and regions but varies according to the temperature gradient. We find large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/°C) and a region-specific response to cold days (from flat to steep responses). The T at which EC was at minimum varies between 14 and 20 °C and increase in time as mean daily T also increase. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries.

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The authors are grateful to Jorge Siriryi from the Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company (CAMMESA acronym in Spanish) for providing the electricity consumption data.

Availability of data, material, and codes

Data for this study are available upon request.


This research has been financially supported by CONICET (PICT 2017-4528—“Incorporación del nexo Energía-Uso del Suelo-Clima al ordenamiento territorial Argentino”). Propato is supported by a doctoral fellowship from CONICET.

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Tamara S. Propato, Diego de Abelleyra, Santiago R. Verón, and María Semmartin. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Tamara S. Propato and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Tamara Sofía Propato.

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Propato, T.S., de Abelleyra, D., Semmartin, M. et al. Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina. Climatic Change 166, 25 (2021).

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