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Spatiotemporal changes of rice phenology in China under climate change from 1981 to 2010

Abstract

An examination of multiple spatiotemporal changes in crop phenology is critical for enabling regional agricultural activities to adapt to climate change. This study utilizes observed phenological data on early, single, and late rice collected from 39 agricultural meteorological stations in China over the 1981–2010 period to investigate changes in 10 phenological dates and three growing periods. Trends in air temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, and growing degree days over the study period were also recorded. It was found that, on average, the dates of sowing (0.03 d a−1), emergence (0.01 d a−1), booting (0.00 d a−1), heading (0.05 d a−1), milk ripening (0.22 d a−1), and maturity (0.08 d a−1) were delayed across all stations, whereas the dates of trefoil (0.07 d a−1), transplanting (0.07 d a−1), regreening (0.11 d a−1), and tillering (0.11 d a−1) were advanced. There were different trends among different growing periods. Across all stations, on average, a slightly reduced trend for vegetative (0.00 d a−1) and reproductive growing periods (0.01 d a−1) was observed, while an extended trend for whole growing periods (0.03 d a−1) was found. Sensitivity analyses of rice growing periods and climatic factors indicated that increases in temperature and sunshine hours tended to reduce lengths of the growing periods at most stations, whereas precipitation has tended to extend the lengths of the reproductive growing periods over the past decades.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the China Meteorological Administration for providing data support.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant No. 41671037]; National Key R & D Program of China [Grant No. 2018YFA0606102]; the Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS [Grant No. 2016049]; and the Program for “Kezhen” Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS [Grant No. 2017RC101].

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Correspondence to Yujie Liu or Quansheng Ge.

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Liu, Y., Zhou, W. & Ge, Q. Spatiotemporal changes of rice phenology in China under climate change from 1981 to 2010. Climatic Change 157, 261–277 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02548-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02548-w