Climatic Change

, Volume 154, Issue 3–4, pp 511–527 | Cite as

Weather conditions and museum attendance: a case-study from Sicily

  • Roberto CelliniEmail author
  • Tiziana Cuccia


This paper evaluates whether and how weather conditions affect museum attendance. As a case study, we examine the daily attendance at the Museo Regionale della Ceramica (Regional Museum of Ceramics) in Caltagirone, Sicily (Italy), over the period starting from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2016. In addition to the daily and monthly fixed effects and the influence of tourism, which are investigated by the available literature, we document a significant effect of weather conditions, specifically temperature and rainfall, which work in an asymmetric way across the different seasons. Temperature has a significant non-monotonic effect on museum attendance, with an increase having a positive impact in low-temperature (non-summer) months and a negative impact in high-temperature (summer) season; rainfalls encourage museum visits but only during summer months. Some long-term projections concerning the impact of weather modifications upon museum attendance due to climate change are proposed and discussed.



The Authors thank Paolo Figini, Antonello Scorcu and three anonymous referees for helpful comments.


  1. Agnew M, Palutikof J (2006) Impacts of short term climate variability in the UK on demand for domestic and international tourism. Clim Res 21:109–120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alvarez-Diaz N, Rossello-Nadal J (2010) Forecasting British tourist arrivals in the Balearic Islands using meteorological variables. Tour Econ 16:153–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Amelung B, Nicholls S, Viner D (2007) Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. J Travel Res 45:285–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Archibald CL, Butt N (2018) Using Google search data to inform global climate change adaptation policy. Clim Chang 150:447–456CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Becken S, Hay JE (2007) Tourism and climate change: risks and opportunities. Channel View Publication, TorontoGoogle Scholar
  6. Brida JG, Dalle Nogare C, Scuderi R (2016) Frequency of museum attendance: motivation matters. J Cult Econ 40:261–283CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Canales P, Pardo A (2011) Assessing weather risk in sun and sand destinations. Envir Econ 2:50–61Google Scholar
  8. Candela G, Figini P (2012) The economics of tourism destinations. Springer Publishing, HeidelbergCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cellini R, Cuccia T (2013) Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach. Appl Econ 45:3473–3482CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cellini R, Cuccia T (2018) How free admittance affects charged visits to museums: an analysis of the Italian case. Oxf Econ Pap 70:680–698CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Connolly M (2008) Here comes the rain again: weather and the intertemporal substitution of leisure. J Labor Econ 26:73–100CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Cuccia T, Rizzo I (2011) Cultural seasonality in cultural destinations: empirical evidence from Sicily. Tour Manag 32:589–595CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Cuffe HE (2018) Rain and museum attendance: are daily data fine enough? J Cult Econ 42:213–241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA (2014) What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. J Econ Lit 53:740–798CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Dubois G, Ceron J-P, Gössling S, Hall CM (2016) Weather preferences of French tourists: lessons for climate change impact assessment. Clim Chang 136:339–351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Falk M (2014) Impact of weather conditions on tourism demand in the peak summer season over the last 50years. Tour Manag Persp 9:24–35Google Scholar
  17. Farber HS (2005) Is tomorrow another day? The labor supply of New York city cabdrivers. J Polit Econ 113:46–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Farber HS (2015) Why you can’t find a taxi in the rain and other labor supply lessons from cab drivers. Q J Econ 130:1975–2026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Fatoric S, Seekamp E (2017) Are cultural heritage and resources threatened climate change? A systematic literature review. Clim Chang 142:227–254CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Fernandez-Blanco V, Prieto-Rodriguez J (2011) Museums. In: Towse R (ed) A handbook of cultural economics, Second edn. Edward Elgar Publishing, Northampton, pp 290–296Google Scholar
  21. Finger R, Lehmann N (2012) Modeling the sensitivity of outdoor recreation activities to climate change. Clim Res 51:229–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Frey BS, Meier S (2006) The economics of museum. In: Ginsburgh VA, Throsby D (Eds) Handbook of the economics of art and culture, North Holland, Amsterdam, p 1017–1047Google Scholar
  23. Hewer MJ, Gough WA (2016) Weather sensitivity for zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada: a quantitative analysis of historical data. Int J Biometeorol 60:1645–1660CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hewer MJ, Gough WA (2018) Thirty years of assessing the impacts of climate change on outdoor recreation and tourism in Canada. Tour Manag Persp 26:179–192Google Scholar
  25. Katz RW, Murphy AH (eds) (1997) Economic value of weather and climate forecasts. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  26. Kotler N, Kotler P (1998) Museum strategy and marketing. Jossey-Bass Publisher, San FranciscoGoogle Scholar
  27. Lise W, Tol RSJ (2002) Impact of climate on tourist demand. Clim Chang 55:429–449CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Maccini S, Yang D (2009) Health, schooling, and economic consequences of early-life rainfall. Am Econ Rev 99:1006–1026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. McKercher B, Shoval N, Park N, Kahani A (2015) The [limited] impact of weather on tourist behavior in an urban destination. J Travel Res 54:442–455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Muller A, Grandi M (2000) Weather derivatives: a risk management tool for weather-sensitive industries. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice 25:273–287CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Nicholls S, Holecek DF, Noh J (2008) Impact of weather variability on golfing activity and implications of climate change. Tour Anal 13:117–130CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Perkins DR (2018) Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks. Int J Biometeorol 62:127–137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Phauner DJ, Smith VK (2005) Recreation demand models. In: Mler KG, Vincent JR (eds) Handbook of environmental economics, vol 2. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 671–761Google Scholar
  34. Prieto-Rodriguez J, Fernandez-Blanco V (2006) Optimal pricing and grant policies for museums. J Cult Econ 30:169–181CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Seaman BA (2011) Empirical studies of demand for the performing arts. In: Ginsburg VA, Throsby D (eds) Handbook of the economics of arts and culture. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 415–472Google Scholar
  36. Shi J, Skuterud M (2015) Gone fishing! Reported sickness absenteeism and the weather. Econ Inq 53:388–405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Su AT, Cheng CK, Lin YJ (2014) Modeling daily visits to the 2010 Taipei International Flora Exposition. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening 13:725–733CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Weaver D (2011) Can sustainable tourism survive the climate change? J Sustain Tour 19:5–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Wilkins E, De Urioste-Stone S, Weiskittel A, Gabe T (2018) Effects of weather conditions on tourism spending: implications for future trends under climate change. J Travel Res 57:999–1011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Zirulia L (2017) Should I stay or should I go? Weather forecast and the economics of ‘short breaks’. Tour Econ 22:837–846CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Zivin JG, Neidell M (2014) Temperature and the allocation of time: implications for climate change. J Labor Econ 32:1–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of CataniaCataniaItaly

Personalised recommendations