Climatic Change

, Volume 152, Issue 3–4, pp 569–579 | Cite as

Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest

  • Ali AhmadalipourEmail author
  • Hamid Moradkhani
  • Mukesh Kumar


Anthropogenic climate warming has increased the likelihood of extreme hot summers. To facilitate mitigation and adaptation planning, it is essential to quantify and synthesize climate change impacts and characterize the associated uncertainties. By synergistically using projections of climate scenarios from an ensemble of regional climate models and a spatially explicit version of an empirical health risk model, here we quantify the mortality risk associated with excessive heat stress for people aged over 65 years old across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Our results show that mortality risk is expected to intensify by a factor of 8–20 in the last 30 years of the twenty-first century with respect to the historical period (1951–2005) if no climate change mitigation planning is undertaken. If global warming is limited to 2 °C, the mortality risk is expected to rise by a factor of 3–7 for the same period. Further analyses reveal that much of the increase in mortality risk is due to the increase in frequency of warm days rather than their intensity. Unfortunately, the poorest countries with least contribution to climate change are expected to be most impacted by it, as they will experience higher mortality risks compared to wealthier nations.



We would like to acknowledge the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for providing access to climate models. We also appreciate the World Bank for providing data for greenhouse gases emissions and GDP per capita at national level.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

10584_2018_2348_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (8.1 mb)
ESM 1 (PDF 8 mb)


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© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of AlabamaTuscaloosaUSA

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