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Projected climate change impacts on Indiana’s Energy demand and supply

Abstract

This paper estimates changes in future energy demand and supply for Indiana due to projected climate change impacts. We first estimate demand changes under both the business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and a scenario based on reduced emissions consistent with a 2-degree increase in global mean temperature (RCP 4.5), on both a statewide basis and for major urban areas. We then use our adjusted statewide energy demand projections as an input to a comprehensive model of Indiana’s energy system, to project expected changes in the state’s energy supply under both scenarios. Finally, we consider the potential impacts of two policy scenarios—a carbon pricing scheme and a renewable energy investment tax credit—on emissions and future energy supply choices. Our results suggest that climate change will have a relatively modest effect on energy demand and supply in Indiana, slightly increasing commercial demand and decreasing residential demand but having little effect on energy supply choices. In addition, our results suggest the potential for policy proposals currently being adopted in other states, such as a relatively small carbon price or investment credits for renewable energy sources, to have a larger impact on the state’s future energy mix, increasing production from low or zero carbon energy sources and reducing emissions.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    “Net energy demand” indicates total energy demand in the state of Indiana attributed toward all types of end-uses.

  2. 2.

    We only used post-1980s data to exclude the shock associated with the energy crisis in the U.S. in the 1970s.

  3. 3.

    Historical climate data used included maximum and minimum temperature (TMAX, TMIN), total precipitation (PRCP), and average wind speed (WDSP) during 1960–2013. To match the temporal resolution of the IN-MARKAL model used in our supply analysis, we aggregated the climate data over the three seasons: summer (June–September), winter (December–March), and intermediate (April, May, October, November).

  4. 4.

    Secular trends refer to the non-seasonal/non-cyclical trends in the non-climatic factors such as economic or population growth and technological advancements.

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Acknowledgments

This paper is a contribution to the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (INCCIA). The IN CCIA is managed and supported by the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. The authors would like to acknowledge support for this research from the Purdue Center for the Environment, the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, as well as National Science Foundation grants #1728209 and #1826161, and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project 1016213.

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Correspondence to Leigh Raymond.

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This article is part of a Special Issue on “The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment” edited by Jeffrey Dukes, Melissa Widhalm, Daniel Vimont, and Linda Prokopy.

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Raymond, L., Gotham, D., McClain, W. et al. Projected climate change impacts on Indiana’s Energy demand and supply. Climatic Change 163, 1933–1947 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2299-7

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