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Effects of climate change on the phenology of Osmia cornifrons: implications for population management

Abstract

The phenology of many ecological processes including pollination service is modulated by surface air temperature, making them potentially sensitive to climatic change. The Japanese hornfaced bee, Osmia cornifrons (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), was introduced into the USA in the 1970s and has been used as a key pollinator of spring blooming fruit crops such as apple and blueberry. This study examined the effects of future climate change on three key phenological events of O. cornifrons: date for adult emergence (female and male) in spring, date for completion of egg and larval development, and duration for the development in the Eastern USA. We used daily temperature data obtained from 21 models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for 2006–2100 under the two future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). We estimated the Julian dates (JDs) of spring emergence and development of O. cornifrons using the phenological parameters derived from temperature-dependent biophysical models. The JDs for the bee emergence and development are projected to be significantly advanced in the Eastern USA under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The number of days for bee development is projected to be longer in the southern region (+ 0.57 days/decade) and shorter in the central (− 0.27 days/decade) and northern (− 0.65 days/decade) regions of the Eastern USA (all the p values < 0.01). The significantly longer duration of bee development under future climate change could pose a risk to the bee due to the longer period of being exposed to its pests. Implications for management of O. cornifrons population were discussed in this article.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for the CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. Climate scenarios used were from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). We thank the reviewers for their constructive comments and helpful suggestions.

Funding

The study was supported by the USDA National Institute of Food & Agriculture (NIFA) Grant (NIFA Award, 2014-67004-21631).

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Correspondence to Eungul Lee.

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Lee, E., He, Y. & Park, YL. Effects of climate change on the phenology of Osmia cornifrons: implications for population management. Climatic Change 150, 305–317 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2286-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2286-z

Keywords

  • Future climate change
  • Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios
  • Phenology
  • Pollinator bee