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An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh

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Abstract

Bangladesh, the sixth largest rice producer in the world, has been identified as high risk from the effects of climate change. Many of the adverse impacts of climate change such as land inundation and changes in weather patterns and CO2 levels will impact the agricultural sector. This study develops a partial-equilibrium multi-regional farm household model of Bangladesh rice and non-rice agricultural markets to quantify the impacts of climate change on consumption, production, prices, and farmers’ welfare. The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market using Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of land reduction and productivity decline resulting from climate change. The results show that the decline in production in the coastal and northern regions offsets the production increase in the central and eastern regions, and the simulation predicts that total rice production for Bangladesh falls by about 2%. As total rice consumption falls and imports rise, the net effect leads to a rise in the rice price by 5.71% and a decline in farmers’ welfare. Sensitivity analysis shows that more- (less-) effective abatement technology could play a key role in mitigating (exacerbating) the price and welfare effects. The model predicts that many farmers in regions directly impacted by climate change could leave farming in search of off-farm work. Thus, the government can ease this transition by promoting urban development to provide more job options and technical training for farmers.

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Notes

  1. Although this is a static model as variables are not time dependent, with land decisions endogenous, it does provide a long-run analysis which typically covers 15 to 30 years.

  2. The 4.50% productivity decline for non-rice agricultural production is calculated as the production-weighted average of the median yield decline for wheat (2%), maize (6%), and soybeans (13%) based on estimates from Lobell et al. (2008) and data from FAOStat (2017).

  3. An alternative interpretation could be uncertainty in the progression of climate change or adaptation strategies on agricultural production, particularly in the coastal zone where the exact effectiveness of adaptation measures is unclear and land accretion and erosion occur at different rates (Brammer 2014a). Furthermore, Brammer (2014b) finds a decline in maximum temperatures in non-coastal regions and only small increases in minimum temperatures and tenuous evidence for climate-change-driven changes in rainfall patterns.

  4. Since rice and the composite non-rice agricultural goods are modeled as annual production of kilo calories, we advise caution in interpreting the results. The results give the average impact. However, for rice, the impacts will likely be more severe for the non-irrigated aus rice variety and less pronounced for the irrigated boro rice variety.

  5. Using a logistic regression, Szabo et al. (2016) finds soil salinisation negative impacts household food security, but is insignificant when wealth in included in the regression.

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Acknowledgments

We very much appreciate the valuable comments of the co-editors Michael Oppenheimer and Gary Yohe, deputy editor Norm J. Rosenberg, associate deputy editors Kristin Kuntz-Duriseti and Bruce McCarl, and three anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh

    Ashrafun Nahar

  2. University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Fayetteville, AR, USA

    Jeff Luckstead & Eric J. Wailes

  3. Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

    Mohammad Jahangir Alam

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  1. Ashrafun Nahar
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  2. Jeff Luckstead
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  3. Eric J. Wailes
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  4. Mohammad Jahangir Alam
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Correspondence to Jeff Luckstead.

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Nahar, A., Luckstead, J., Wailes, E.J. et al. An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh. Climatic Change 150, 289–304 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2267-2

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