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Dynamic modeling of barrier island response to hurricane storm surge under future sea level rise

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Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to exacerbate the impacts of extreme storm events on the coastal landscape. This study examines the coupled interactions of SLR on storm-driven hydrodynamics and barrier island morphology. A numerical model is used to simulate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic impacts of two Gulf of Mexico hurricanes under present-day and future sea levels. SLR increased surge heights and caused overwash to occur at more locations and for longer durations. During surge recession, water level gradients resulted in seaward sediment transport. The duration of the seaward-directed water level gradients was altered under SLR; longer durations caused more seaward-directed cross-barrier transport and a larger net loss in the subaerial island volume due to increased sand deposition in the nearshore. Determining how SLR and the method of SLR implementation (static or dynamic) modulate storm-driven morphologic change is important for understanding and managing longer-term coastal evolution.

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Acknowledgments

The model inputs and outputs for this study can be found in Passeri, D.L., Bilskie, M.V., Plant, N.G., Long, J.W., Hagen, S.C., 2018, Dauphin Island Storms and Sea Level Rise Assessment: XBeach Model Inputs and Results: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7N87930. The authors would like to thank Soupy Dalyander at USGS and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Funding

This effort was funded in part under awards NA10NOS4780146 and NA16NOS4780208 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 4th Street South, St. Petersburg, FL, USA

    Davina L. Passeri

  2. Center for Coastal Resiliency, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

    Matthew V. Bilskie & Scott C. Hagen

  3. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering/Center for Computation & Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

    Matthew V. Bilskie & Scott C. Hagen

  4. U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL, USA

    Nathaniel G. Plant & Joseph W. Long

Authors
  1. Davina L. Passeri
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  2. Matthew V. Bilskie
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  3. Nathaniel G. Plant
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  4. Joseph W. Long
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  5. Scott C. Hagen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Davina L. Passeri.

Additional information

Key Points:

SLR modulates the interaction between storm-driven hydrodynamics and morphologic evolution

SLR increases dune overwash and alters seaward cross-barrier transport and nearshore deposition

Static and dynamic implementations of SLR result in different interactions and impacts

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Passeri, D.L., Bilskie, M.V., Plant, N.G. et al. Dynamic modeling of barrier island response to hurricane storm surge under future sea level rise. Climatic Change 149, 413–425 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2245-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2245-8

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