Skip to main content

Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella

Climatic Change volume 148, pages 547–560 (2018)Cite this article

Abstract

Characterizing how climate change will alter the burden of infectious diseases has clear public health implications. Despite our uniquely detailed understanding of the transmission process for directly transmitted immunizing infections, the impact of climate variables on these infections remains understudied. Here, we develop a novel approach that incorporates statistical analysis of climate effects with a mechanistic model of disease transmission, to investigate the dynamic response of directly transmitted, immunizing infections to climate change. We analyze the effect of climate on varicella, a common airborne childhood infection, by leveraging 30 years of reported cases across 32 states in Mexico. We use this to map the potential changes in the magnitude and variability of varicella incidence in Mexico as a result of predicted changes in future climate conditions. Our results indicate that the predicted decrease in relative humidity in Mexico towards the end of the century will increase incidence of varicella, all else equal. These changes in incidence will be non-uniform across the year such that cases will shift from winter to summer months. Climate-driven changes to the timing of future incidence, for these types of infections, may have substantial public health implications.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

References

Download references

Funding

This work was funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (A.S.M., grant number 5R24HD047879); the National Institutes of Health training grant (A.S.M., grant number 5T32HD007163); the Rockefeller Foundation Planetary Health Fellowship (A.S.M.); the Walbridge Fund in the Princeton Environmental Institute at Princeton University (R.E.B); the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; and a Wellcome Trust Sustaining Health grant (C.J.E.M., grant number 106866/Z/15/Z).

Author information

Author notes

    Authors and Affiliations

    1. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA

      Rachel E. Baker

    2. Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA

      Ayesha S. Mahmud

    3. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA

      C. Jessica E. Metcalf

    Authors
    1. Rachel E. Baker
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    2. Ayesha S. Mahmud
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    3. C. Jessica E. Metcalf
      View author publications

      You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to Rachel E. Baker.

    Additional information

    Rachel E. Baker and Ayesha S. Mahmud contributed equally to this work.

    Electronic supplementary material

    Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

    (PDF 1.14 MB)

    Rights and permissions

    Reprints and Permissions

    About this article

    Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

    Cite this article

    Baker, R.E., Mahmud, A.S. & Metcalf, C.J.E. Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella. Climatic Change 148, 547–560 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2204-4

    Download citation

    • Received:

    • Accepted:

    • Published:

    • Issue Date:

    • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2204-4