Skip to main content

Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

References

  1. Aggarwal PK, Mall RK (2002) Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment. Clim Chang 52:331–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang 5(2):37–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Balkovič J, van der Velde M, Skalský R et al (2014) Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Glob Planet Chang 122:107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Batjes NH, 2006 ISRIC-WISE derived soil properties on a 5 by 5 arc-minutes global grid. International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), Wageningen, the Netherlands

  5. Cai C, Yin X, He S et al (2016) Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments. Glob Chang Biol 22(2):856–874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cai H, Chen Q (2000) Rice research in China in the early 21st century. Chinese Rice Res Newsletter 8:14–16

    Google Scholar 

  7. Cantelaube P, Terres JM (2005) Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modeling in Europe. Tellus A 57A:476–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Cao XX, Wan SQ, Ming WU (2014) Determination of optimum sowing date and analysis of climate risk for early-rice in Hubei Province. Chin J Agrometeorol 35(4):429–433

    Google Scholar 

  9. Cassman KG, Dobermann AD, Walters D, Yang H (2003) Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality. Annu Rev Environ Resour 28:315–358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. FAO (2013) FAO statistical yearbook world food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, pp 1–289

    Google Scholar 

  11. Hnilica J, Hanel M, Puš V (2016) Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models. Int J Climatol, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4890

  12. Hu Q, Yang N, Pan F, Pan X, Wang X, Yang P (2017) Adjusting sowing dates improved potato adaptation to climate change in semiarid region, China. Sustainability 9:615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ et al (2003) The DSSAT croppingsystem model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Jones PG, Thornton PK (1993) A rainfall generator for agricultural applications in the tropics. Agric Forest Meteorol 63:1–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Jones PG, Thornton PK (1997) Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model. Agric Forest Meteorol 86:127–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Jones PG, Thornton PK (2013) Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agr Syst 114:1–5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Jones PG, Thornton PK (2015) Representative soil profiles for the Harmonized World Soil Database at different spatial resolutions for agricultural modelling applications. Agr Syst 139:93–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Katz RW (2002) Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim Res 20:167–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Li Z, Liu S, Guo S, Wang D (2015) Predicting the impact of future climate change on rice yield in Northeast China. J China Agricultural University 20(2):223–228

    Google Scholar 

  20. Liu L, Wang E, Zhu Y et al (2013) Effects of warming and autonomous breeding on the phenological development and grain yield of double-rice systems in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 165(3):28–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Ludwig F, Asseng S (2010) Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates. Agric Syst 103:127–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013a) Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in the mainly wheat-growing regions of China. Agric For Meteorol 171–172:234–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Lv Z, Liu X, Tang L, Liu L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013b) A method for correcting the meteorological data from regional climate model and its application in crop simulation. Sci Agric Sin 46(16):3334–3343

    Google Scholar 

  24. Lv Z, Liu X, Tang L, Liu L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013c) Regional Prediction and Evaluation of Wheat Phenology Based on the WheatGrow and CERES Models. Scientia Agricultura Sinica 46(6):1136–1148

    Google Scholar 

  25. Lv Z, Liu X, Tang L, Liu L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2016) Estimation of ecotype-specific cultivar parameters in a wheat phenology model and uncertainty analysis. Agric For Meteorol 221:219–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, Zhu Y (2017) A model-based estimate of regional wheat yield gaps and water use efficiency in main winter wheat production regions of china. Sci Rep 7(1):6081

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Maclean JL, Dawe DC, Hardy B, Hettel GP (2002) Rice almanac, third edition, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines 1-253

  28. Makowski D, Wallach D, Tramblay M (2002) Using a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation; comparison of the GLUE and MCMC methods. Agronomie 22:191–203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Masutomi Y, Takahashi K, Harasawa H, Matsuoka Y (2009) Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agric Ecosyst Environ 131:281–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Peng S, Tang Q, Zou Y (2009) Current status and challenges of rice production in China. Plant Prod Sci 12(1):3–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467(7311):43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Qu H, Jiang L, Wang D (2016) Influence of climate change on sterile-type cooling injury in rice in Heilongjiang Province, China. Acta Ecol Sin 36(3):769–777

    Google Scholar 

  33. Ramirez J, Jarvis A (2008) High resolution statistically downscaled future climate surfaces. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia

  34. Ray D, Ramankutty N, Mueller N (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat Commun 3:1293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Richter GM, Semenov MA (2005) Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agr Syst 84(1):77–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Ritchie JT, Alocilja EC, Singh U, Uehera G (1987) IBSNAT and CERES-Rice model, in: International Rice Research Institute (Eds.), Weather and Rice-Proceedings of the International Workshop on the Impact of Weather Parameters on Growthand Yield of Rice. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines, pp 271–281

  37. Rosenzweig C, Elliott JM, Deryng D et al (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:3268–3273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Saxton KE, Rawls WJ (2006) Soil water characteristic estimates by texture and organic matter for hydrologic solutions. Soil Sci Soc Am J 70:1569–1578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Shen S, Yang S, Zhao Y, Xu Y, Zhao X, Wang Z, Liu J, Zhang W (2011) Simulating the rice yield change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under SRES B2 scenario. Acta Ecol Sin 31:40–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Shi CX, Xie ZH, Qian H et al (2011) China land soil moisture EnKF data assimilation based on satellite remote sensing data. Sci China Earth Sci 54:1430–1440. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-4160-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Tao F, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z, Sakamoto T, Yokozawa M (2008) Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: developing a probabilistic assessment. Agric For Meteorol 148:94–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Tao F, Zhang Z, Shi W et al (2013) Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981–2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Glob Chang Biol 19:3200–3209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Thornton PK, Jones PG, Alagarswamy G, Andresen J (2009) Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Global Environ Change 19:54–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Van Vuuren DP et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Van Wart J, Kersebaum KC, Peng S, Milner M, Cassman KG (2013) Estimating crop yield potential at regional to national scales. Field Crop Res 143:34–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Wang Y, Yan H (2014) Effect of climate change on rice production in Heilongjiang Province. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 30(9):92–98

    Google Scholar 

  48. Wang W, Yu Z, Zhang W et al (2014) Responses of rice yield, irrigation water requirement and water use efficiency to climate change in China: historical simulation and future projections. Agr Water Manage 146:249–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Xiong W, Conway D, Xu Y et al (2008) The impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture-phase II. National level study: the impacts of climate change on cereal production in China. Final Report AEA Group, UK

  50. Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Xu Y, Ju H, Jiang J, Holman I, Li Y (2009) Future cereal production in China: modelling the interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 19:34–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Xiong W, Holman IP, You L et al (2014) Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China. Reg Environ Chang 14:7–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Yang SB, Shen SH, Zhao XY (2010) Impacts of climate changes on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Acta Agron Sin 36(9):1519–1528

    Google Scholar 

  53. Yang X, Chen F, Lin X et al (2015) Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China. Agric For Meteorol 208:76–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E (2007) Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China. Clim Chang:395–409

  55. Zhang T, Zhu J, Wassmann R (2010) Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981–2005). Agric For Meteorol 150(7):1128–1137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Zhang T, Huang Y, Yang X (2013) Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice. Glob Chang Biol 19(2):563–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Zhang T, Yang X, Wang H (2014) Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis. Glob Chang Biol 20(4):1289–1298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Zhu DF, Min SK (2001) Rice production in China under current and future climates. In: Matthew RB, Kropff MJ, Bachelet D, Van LHH (eds) Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in China. CAB International, Wallingford, pp 217–235

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank Peter G. Jones for supplying the MarkSim model.

Funding

This research was supported by the Research and Development Fund of Zhejiang Agriculture and Forest University (2014FR041), the Special Program for Agriculture Science and Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture in China (201303109), and funding by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31701322 and 31401278).

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zunfu Lv.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 1874 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Lv, Z., Zhu, Y., Liu, X. et al. Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China. Climatic Change 147, 523–537 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0

Download citation

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Global climate model
  • Grid
  • Rice yield
  • Sowing date