There is considerable research interest in future agro-drought risk assessment, since the increasing severity of climate change-related hazards poses a great threat to global food security. Wheat is the most important staple crop in the world, and China’s wheat production has long been impacted by drought. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts may increase due to climate change and stressing the need for robust assessment methods for drought risk, as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper investigates a method for assessing future wheat drought risk using climate scenarios and a crop model. We illustrate the utility of such an approach by assessing the risk of wheat drought under climate change scenarios in China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model. Results show that the risk level of wheat drought is highest under scenario RCP8.5, followed by RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP2.6, in descending order. If current climate change trends continue, wheat drought risk in China will be at risk levels between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. The wheat drought risk assessment shows a “low-risk, high-risk, low-risk” spatial pattern starting in the spring wheat-planting regions in northern China and progressing to the winter wheat-planting regions in southern China. Significant differences were observed across regions, but in all RCP scenarios, the relative high-risk zones are the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region and the North Winter Wheat Region. In addition, wheat drought risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in China are proposed.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Subscribe to journal
Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Alexander D (2000) Confronting catastrophe–new perspectives on natural disasters. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Barbe K, Gonzales FL, Barford L, Lauwers L (2014) A guaranteed blind and automatic probability density estimation of raw measurements. IEEE Trans Instrum Meas 63(9):2120–2128
Boote KJ, Jones JW, Pickering NB (1996) Potential uses and limitations of crop models. Agron J 88(5):704–716
Brooks N (2003) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: a conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre Clim Chang Res Work Pap 38:1–16
Davis JR, Uryasev S (2016) Analysis of tropical storm damage using buffered probability of exceedance. Nat Hazards 83(1):465–483
Dike VN, Shimizu MH, Diallo M, Lin Z, Nwofor OK, Chineke TC (2015) Modelling present and future African climate using cmip5 scenarios in HadGEM2-ES. Int J Climatol 35(8):1784–1799
Dilley M, Chen RS, Deichmann U, Lerner-Lam AL, Arnold M, Agwe J, Buys P, Kjekstad O, Lyon B, Yetman G (2005) Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis; disaster risk management series no. 5. (n.d.). The World Bank, Washington, DC
Di Paola A, Valentini R, Santini M (2016) An overview of available crop growth and yield models for studies and assessments in agriculture. J Sci Food Agric 96(3):709–714
Duinen RV, Filatova T, Geurts P, Veen AVD (2015) Coping with drought risk: empirical analysis of farmers’ drought adaptation in the south–west Netherlands. Reg Environ Chang 15(6):1–13
FAO (2017) Global report on food crises 2017. Global overview of food crises. (n.d.) Food Security Information Network. Available online at http://www.fao.org/3/a–br323e.pdf
Fisher M, Abate T, Lunduka RW, Asnake W, Alemayehu Y, Madulu RB (2015) Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub–Saharan Africa: determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa. Clim Chang 133(2):283–299
Gies L, Agusdinata DB, Merwade V (2014) Drought adaptation policy development and assessment in east Africa using hydrologic and system dynamics modeling. Nat Hazards 74(2):789–813
Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L, Schewe J, Piontek F (2013) A trend–preserving bias correction – the ISI–MIP approach. Earth Syst Dynam 4(2):219–236
IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 582 pp
IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp 1535
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva
Jones CD, Hughes JK, Bellouin N, Hardiman SC, Jones GS (2011) Model development the HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations, 5194
Ju H, van der Velde M, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y (2013) The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Clim Chang 120(1):313–324
Ker AP, Goodwin BK (2000) Nonparametric estimation of crop insurance rates revisited. Am J Agric Econ 82(2):463–478
Khare S, Bonazzi A, Mitas C, Jewson S (2015) Modelling clustering of natural hazard phenomena and the effect on re/insurance loss perspectives. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15(6):1357–1370
Lei YD, Wang JA, Yue YY, Yin YY, Sheng ZY (2014) How adjustments in land use patterns contribute to drought risk adaptation in a changing climate—a case study in China. Land Use Policy 36(1):577–584
Leng G, Tang Q, Rayburg S (2015) Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in china. Glob Planet Chang 126(126):23–34
Li YC, Huang HP, Ju H, Lin ED, Xiong W, Han X, Wang HR, Peng ZP, Wang YQ, Xu JW, Cao Y, Hu W (2015) Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity to potential drought for winter–wheat under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the Huang–Huai–Hai plain. Agric Ecosyst Environ 209:125–131
Liu B, Asseng S, Müller C, Ewert F, Elliott J, Boote DB, Martre P, Ruane AC, Wallach D, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Aggarwal PK, Alderman PD, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor A, Deryng D, Sanctis GD, Doltra J, Fereres E, Folberth C, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Kimball BA, Koehler AK, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O’Leary GJ, Olesen JE, Ottman MJ, Palosuo T, Prasad PVV, Priesack E, Pugh TAM, Reynolds M, Rezaei EE, Rötter RP, Schmid E, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stehfest E, Stöckle CO, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wall GW, Wang E, White JW, Wolf J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y (2016) Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nat Clim Chang 6(12):1130–1136
Lobell DB, Burke MB (2010) On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 150(11):1443–1452
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costaroberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333(6042):616–620
Logar I, Jeroen B (2013) Methods to assess costs of drought damages and policies for drought mitigation and adaptation: review and recommendations. Water Resour Manag 27(6):1707–1720
McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken D, White K (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Prabhakar SVRK, Shaw R (2008) Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India. Clim Chang 88:113–130
Richter GM, Semenov MA (2005) Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agric Syst 84:77–97
Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Boote K, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh T, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang Y, Jones J (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 111(9):3268–3273
Sheffield J, Wood EF (2008) Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi–model, multi–scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn 31(1):79–105
Silverman BW (1986) Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Chapman and Hall, London
Trenberth KE, Dai A, Schrier GVD, Jones PD, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Sheffield J (2013) Global warming and changes in drought. Nat Clim Chang 4(1):17–22
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31
Wand MP, Jones MC (1994) Kernel smoothing. Chapman and Hall, London
Williams JR (1995) The EPIC model. In: Singh VP (ed) Computer models of watershed hydrology. Water resources Publications, High-lands Ranch, Chapter 25, pp 909–1000
Wilhite DA (2000) Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought: a global assessment. Routledge Publishers, London, pp 3–18
Wu JJ, Liu M, Lü AF, He B (2014) The variation of the water deficit during the winter wheat growing season and its impact on crop yield in the North China Plain. Int J Biometeorol 58(9):1951–1960
Yuan XC, Wang Q, Wang K, Wang B, Jin JL, Wei YM (2015) China’s regional vulnerability to drought and its mitigation strategies under climate change: data envelopment analysis and analytic hierarchy process integrated approach. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 20(3):341–359
Yue YJ, Li J, Ye XY, Wang ZQ, Zhu AX, Wang JA (2015) An EPIC model–based vulnerability assessment of wheat subject to drought. Nat Hazards 78(3):1629–1652
Zhao GC (2010a) Study on Chinese wheat planting regionalization (I). J Triticeae Crops 30(5):886–895 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhao GC (2010b) Study on Chinese wheat planting regionalization (II). J Triticeae Crops 30(6):1140–1147 (in Chinese with English abstract)
This research is financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (No. 2016YFA0602402), the National Natural Science Foundation (No. 41271515) and the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2012CB955403) of China. Thanks should also be given to the anonymous reviewers and editor for their comments to improve the quality of this article.
Electronic supplementary material
About this article
Cite this article
Yue, Y., Wang, L., Li, J. et al. An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China. Climatic Change 147, 539–553 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2150-1